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With the NBA Draft Lottery officially in the rearview, fans around the world have started to wonder if Roger Goodell could soon follow in Adam Silver's footsteps and bring the ping pong balls to the NFL Draft.
On paper, the idea is simple: teams outside of the playoffs would have a less defined future in the first round and potentially beyond, with the team holding the worst record no longer guaranteed pick No. 1. But would this really make the NFL better? Would the NFL consider shaking things up in such a major way when they don't have the same tanking problem as the NBA?
Well, in his recent NFL Mailbag for Sports Illustrated, Albert Breer was asked that very question and broke down why he doesn't see it happening any time soon.
“I don’t think the NFL’s going to do a draft lottery anytime soon. There hasn’t been much of an appetite for it. Part of the concern is it could lead to tanking, in that teams that are mediocre and out of the playoff picture, could lay down at the end of the season to increase their lottery odds,” Breer noted.
“The other argument that the league would make is that tanking hasn’t been that big of an issue for them, though I’d argue that could be changing, with analytics departments more involved in strategy, and putting real value on wins vs. picks. The Patriots, for example, won their Week 18 game last year, dropping them from first to fourth in the draft order. Had they lost, they’d have had the Giants and Titans bidding to move up to the top pick, and they would’ve ended up with a haul for the selection and perhaps Travis Hunter to boot. So teams looking at those sorts of things, and getting more intentional on how they handle the end of the season, could change the equation, for sure.”
Breer was also asked about the concept of expansion, with the NFL potentially going from 32 to 34 teams at some point in the future. While Breer does believe that the NFL is exploring external markets for one reason or another, he doesn't believe there will be a new team or two anytime soon.
“I think the only way it happens is if the NFL goes international. It’s simple math, and we’ve been through it before. I don’t see where the 32 owners (or 31, not counting the Packers) will add two pieces to the financial pie they’re cutting up, unless those pieces have a chance to make their pieces bigger. Collecting a hefty expansion fee might be enticing, but that’s a one-time hit,” Breer noted.
“With that established, I think the only markets that make the NFL deals—television and otherwise—more valuable would be in other countries. That’s why the league has invested so much since 2007 to try to cultivate London as an NFL city. It’s why they are in major metropolises in Germany and Spain, and Brazil now, and will be in Australia next year.”
Currently sitting pretty with four divisions of four teams in each conference, adding two more teams would make for all sorts of logistical questions moving forward, with the entire formation of the NFL having to change to accommodate two new franchises. Still, if the opportunity presents itself, then who knows, maybe the league will take that leap in the future, prioritizing the financial gains over the logistical issues they would go along with them.
