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After months of deliberation, the most drawn-out storyline of the 2025 NFL offseason will finally come to an end. Following his release from the New York Jets, Aaron Rodgers will return for one more year in 2025 with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ahead of his first season with the Steelers, we'll be making our Aaron Rodgers predictions.
Though the 41-year-old has yet to put pen to paper, Rodgers told the team he would sign a one-year deal. Assuming everything goes according to plan, he will become Pittsburgh's third different starting quarterback in as many years and fourth in the last five seasons.
Signing a player of Rodgers' age will only further that trend, but it gives the Steelers much more immediate hope than they previously had.
Even at 41, Rodgers is a significant improvement from what the Steelers' quarterback room currently has. Until he officially signs, Pittsburgh's roster only has Mason Rudolph, Skylar Thompson and Will Howard listed at quarterback.
Rudolph has prior experience starting in black and gold but is otherwise a career backup, like Thompson. Howard, a sixth-round rookie, has the team's belief as a potential option down the line but not one who is ready to be thrown into the fire.
With Rodgers leading the charge, the Steelers hope to maintain their status as dark-horse title contenders. Coming off an up-and-down season with the New York Jets, Rodgers also seeks a rebound campaign with renowned head coach Mike Tomlin. With many variables in play, here are our 2025 Aaron Rodgers predictions.
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Aaron Rodgers will lead Steelers back to playoffs
Since taking over in 2007, Mike Tomlin has notoriously never suffered a losing season as a head coach. He has made the playoffs in 12 of his 18 years, even if postseason success has evaded him over the last decade. Perhaps that trend continues in 2025, but either way, Aaron Rodgers should lead the Steelers back to the playoffs.
While the Steelers have made the playoffs at a 67 percent clip under Tomlin, Rodgers has seen the postseason in 11 of his 18 years. Removing his early years as a backup and the two seasons he lost to injury, he has reached the playoffs at an 85 percent rate.
Rodgers has had his late-career struggles, but if he is to experience a second wind, it would be with Pittsburgh. Many criticize his stingy approach with his coaches, but the four-time MVP has openly expressed his admiration for Tomlin. If there is one coach he is excited to play for, it seems to be Tomlin, the league's longest-tenured head coach.
The Steelers share a lot of similarities with Rodgers, beyond just their new partnership. Fans love to write both of them off, even if history suggests otherwise.
Pittsburgh endured a lot of changes in the offseason, but it made a point to avoid a rebuild year. Before signing Rodgers, the Steelers bolstered their offensive roster by trading for DK Metcalf and drafting running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round.
Aaron Rodgers will throw for fewest yards in his career
Rodgers might lead the Steelers back to the playoffs, but it will not be because of his arm. He might statistically be coming off a resurgent year with the Jets, but Rodgers' best days are long gone. As impressive as his return from a ruptured Achilles was, it seems unlikely that Rodgers will ever throw for 4,000 yards in a year again.
More than anything, the Steelers are the perfect fit for Rodgers at this point in his career. At 41, he is no longer the same player who can carry a franchise as he did in his prime with the Green Bay Packers.
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He is best suited for the role he will be asked to play in 2025 — serving as a methodical leader of a run-first offense in an Arthur Smith-led offense. Call him a game manager, but he will make the right plays and deliver when called upon.
If Smith has Rodgers throw 50 attempts per game, that road will never lead to success. The Steelers know what they are getting and what they already have on their team. Despite losing Najee Harris in free agency, they practically confirmed the approach by taking Johnson instead of Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft.
A decrease in passing numbers does not necessarily mean Rodgers will have a bad year. Nobody should expect him to return to vintage form, especially after mulling retirement. A player with Rodgers' ego would never contemplate hanging it up if he still believed his best days lay ahead.
Aaron Rodgers will retire before the end of season
By signing a one-year deal after months of internal contemplation, Rodgers is making it reasonably clear that he only wants to play one more season. That decision could change by next summer, but for now, he seems content to return for one final run.
In his mind, Rodgers' final season would ideally end with another Super Bowl to ride off into the sunset. A lofty goal indeed, but Rodgers is a natural competitor. However, careers hardly go as planned, and athletes struggle to map out an ideal ending.
Rodgers' signing with the Steelers did not even change the team's championship odds. With the whole world already expecting his signing, the confirmation did not make sportsbooks any more confident in Pittsburgh's Super Bowl aspirations.
If the season goes the way Vegas seems to predict, Rodgers will find it increasingly more challenging to suit up each week with his final championship window decreasing every outing.
It is not common, but the NFL has seen it happen before. Vontae Davis memorably called it a career during halftime of the Buffalo Bills' Week 2 game in the 2018 season. Antonio Brown essentially ended his career in 2021 by running off the field with his shirt off. Rodgers pulling a similar move would spark criticism, but that has never affected his decisions before.
If nothing else, Rodgers is one of the most unpredictable players in the NFL. Outside opinions rarely affect his decisions, and he makes them with confidence.
Say he wakes up one day and no longer feels the need to continue the daily grind, it is not beyond his status quo to prematurely call it quits. The most likely scenario is Rodgers' career ends in the 2026 offseason, but it could be anyone's guess.
