As the Pittsburgh Steelers prepare for their AFC North clash against the Ravens, they will likely get a boost from TJ Watt’s return. However, DK Metcalf’s suspension will ultimately cost the Steelers a playoff spot with a loss to the Ravens.
The division title will be on the line when these teams meet on Sunday Night Football. It’s winner take all. And the Ravens are a three-point favorite.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Ravens are favored on the road is the absence of Metcalf.
Steelers WR DK Metcalf hurt his team
During a game against the Lions, Metcalf was involved in an altercation with a fan. The NFL handed down a two-game suspension.
What followed was a 13-6 dud against the Browns. The offense managed 131 yards rushing but only 168 passing. Rodgers threw to seven different receivers, but none had more than three catches. That includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And he got nine targets.
Pat Freiermuth led the way with 63 yards. But most came on the final desperation drive to try to tie the game.
It just didn’t click without Metcalf. And here’s the biggest problem with his absence in Week 18.
Ravens' defense gains a big advantage
Baltimore has been better on defense after a terrible start to the season. And now they don’t have to worry about double coverage on any of the Steelers’ receivers. The can go man against a non-mobile quarterback. They can come with pressure. It’s going to be hard for the Steelers to move the football through the air.
Still, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said he believes Rodgers still has a few tricks up his sleeve, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review via NFL.com.
“That's one of the things that made him really attractive to us: that can-do attitude, the experience and résumé that goes along with it,” Tomlin said. “I don't think it's work for him. I think it's as natural as breathing. And so if he's breathing, I expect to see that from him as we lean in on this game.”
However, the Ravens have something to prove after letting one slip away in the first meeting between these teams. And that is something the Steelers might. Or be able to match without the offensive firepower they normally possess.
And the absence of Metcalf is especially troubling if Lamar Jackson plays. Because the Steelers will have to match Jackson lifting his offense.
Plus, Jackson may have something to prove because of recent criticism about his toughness, according to baltimoreravens.com.
“I always want to play football,” Jackson said. “But I felt like my brother [Tyler Huntley] could pull the win off for us. Because I wouldn't be able to do anything. I was really hurt.
“I never quit on my team before. (And) I never quit anything, to be honest. I don't know where that noise comes from. Someone probably thinks I'm a robot, but I'm a human being, too. Unfortunately, I couldn't avoid that injury.”
Another edge for the Ravens will be the confidence they have on defense. Safety Kyle Hamilton said the defenders will be edgy, according to baltimoreravens.com.
“It might just be a backs-against-the-wall kind of mentality,” Hamilton said. “There is something a little different about going into somebody else's stadium.
“At the end of the day, we're in enemy territory. Maybe it's that mentality. I don't know what it is.”
What can the Steelers do to overcome suspension?
It’s a pretty simple formula for a Steelers victory. At least in theory. They will have to do something better than they’ve done all season. They must run the football.
The Steelers rank No. 25 in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 103.5. To beat the Ravens with limited receiving help, Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell will need to help the team get more like 150 yards on the ground.
At the very least, the duo needs to be able to get Rodgers in second-and-manageable situations. Otherwise, there’s little hope for third-and-manageable plays.
And Warren has a little statistical motivation, according to a post on X by Gerry Dulac.
“Jaylen Warren needs 108 rushing yards against the Ravens for his first 1,000-yard season. It would be the fifth year in a row the Steelers have had a 1,000-yard rusher.”
However, the Ravens are fairly stout against the run. They rank No. 11 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Against the pass? Not so good. They stand in the No. 30 spot with 245.3 yards per game.
So, there's the conundrum for the Steelers. They need to run, but the Ravens can stop it. They would like to pass, but Metcalf's absence hinders their air attack. That's why his suspension seems like doom for the Steelers.
