Every year, there is a trendy sleeper pick who really catches fans' attention. While the Detroit Lions certainly have a crowded bandwagon for the upcoming season, the NFL-watching world also appears enamored with the always steady Pittsburgh Steelers.

Head coach Mike Tomlin, defensive juggernauts like T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward and second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett are reeling people in with their reputation, stardom and promise, respectively. Add in the Steelers' prestigious football tradition and you can see why they are generating plenty of buzz ahead of the 2023-24 campaign.

However, not everyone is wearing the rose-colored glasses. ESPN writer and analyst Bill Barnwell listed Pittsburgh as one of the teams he expects to decline this year. While a deep division and conference provides enough reason to be skeptical about its playoff chances, Barnwell's basis in making his determination is also rooted in simple probability.

“They turned the ball over just five times in their nine games after the bye (last year),” he told NFL Live, via Nick Farabaugh of SteelersNow. “Now, if you’re Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, maybe you can sustain that. But Kenny Pickett is still a young player that holds the ball for a long time and takes a bunch of sacks. I don’t buy that they can avoid turnovers in that way. Then when you add the defense and the offense was the healthiest team in football last year together, I don’t think they can sustain it.”

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Ah, the classic regression toward the mean principle. Honestly, there is a lot of merit in it in this case. Pickett was fortunate to have a consistent and healthy offensive line during his rookie season. Such luck may not be in the cards going forwards. He may be forced to improvise more often, which could leave him vulnerable.

Barnwell's method for predicting declining teams has proven highly accurate over the past years, so fans should pay him mind. However, he is essentially banking on Pittsburgh's young quarterback to endure some more growing pains.

If Kenny Pickett can keep progressing and display poise beyond his years and projected capabilities, then the Steelers could defy the numbers and validate this growing hype train.