The Anaheim Ducks head to the Lone Star State to face off with the Dallas Stars in a Thursday Night Throwdown. It's time to continue our NHL odds series and deliver a Ducks-Stars prediction and pick.
The Ducks fell 2-1 in overtime to the Nashville Predators on Tuesday. Initially, it was scoreless going into the second period when the Ducks allowed a goal to Colton Sissons to fall behind. Anaheim rallied in the third when Troy Terry found the back of the net to knot it up. Then, neither team could score, which meant overtime. It was back and forth in the extra session until a mistake by the Ducks caused Roman Josi to rip open a shot to seal the game.
The Stars defeated the St. Louis Blues 4-1 on Monday. It was scoreless entering the second period. Then, Dallas struck when Wyatt Johnston broke the tie with a goal. It was his sixth of the year. Next, the Stars added to the tally in the third period with a Ty Dellandra goal. It was his fourth of the year. Ultimately, the Blues broke into the deficit with a goal before Jason Robertson put the game out of reach with his 19th of the year.
The Stars are 8-2 against the Ducks over the previous 10 games. The Stars have also gone 8-2 against the Ducks over the last 10 home games.
Trevor Zegras has three assists over three contests against the Stars. Meanwhile, Terry has two goals over four games against Dallas. Tyler Seguin has the most experience against the Ducks. Likewise, he has generated 12 assists. Goalie Jake Oettinger is 3-0 with a 1.99 goals-against average and a save percentage of .917 against Anaheim.
Here are the Ducks-Stars NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Ducks-Stars Odds
Anaheim Ducks: +1.5 (-104)
Dallas Stars: -1.5 (-118)
Over: 6 (-120)
Under: 6 (-102)
Why The Ducks Could Cover The Spread
The Ducks live and die by their goaltending. Unfortunately, defense and goaltending have not been great for them. The Ducks are more likely to contend for the right to draft Connor Bedard than win a Stanley Cup.
Terry is their top guy with 10 goals and 14 assists. Additionally, he has two powerplay goals. Zegras has eight goals and 12 assists, with two on the extra-man attack. It falls off significantly from there. Ultimately, defenseman Cam Fowler is the next-best scorer with two goals and 10 assists, with one tally on the powerplay. Adam Henrique has seven goals and five assists, with two on the extra-man attack.
The offense is 28th in goals. They are also 31st in shooting percentage and 30th on the powerplay. This Ducks team cannot score, cannot shoot, and cannot take advantage of an extra man on special teams.
But wait, it gets worse. Goalie John Gibson is 4-12-2 with a 3.99 goals-against average and a save percentage of .894. Unfortunately, he has not been able to corral saves and faces roughly 35 shots or more every game. The Ducks are dead last in the NHL in goals allowed and dead last on the penalty kill. Stunningly, this is a considerable drop from last season, where they were 10th on the penalty kill.
The Ducks will cover the spread if they can generate scoring early to prevent Oettinger from getting into a groove. Likewise, they must avoid penalties at all costs.
Why The Stars Could Cover The Spread
The Stars are the team the Ducks aspire to be. Ultimately, they have reliable offense, solid defense, and great goaltending. Robertson leads the pack with 19 goals and 17 assists, with four powerplay goals. Additionally, Jamie Benn is still reliable with 10 goals and 16 assists, including four tallies on the extra-man attack. Joe Pavelski has 10 goals and 14 assists, including five on the extra-man attack. Finally, Roope Hintz has eight goals and 16 assists, as well as one on the powerplay. The Stars are the best team in the NHL in scoring. Moreover, they are the second-best in shooting percentage and third on the powerplay.
Oettinger has done well with an 8-2-3 record, a 2.52 goals-against average, and a save percentage of .917. Remarkably, the Stars are 10th in the NHL in goals allowed. Dallas is also the second-best team on the penalty kill. Ultimately, there are few weaknesses in this squad.
The Stars will cover the spread if they can get plenty of time on special teams to wear down the Ducks. Additionally, the defense must continue to play well in front of Oettinger to give him the best chance to succeed.
Final Ducks-Stars Prediction & Pick
The Ducks are not a good team, and the Stars most definitely are. Therefore, expect more of the same, with the Stars rising to the occasion in front of their fans and drubbing the Ducks on Thursday night.
Final Ducks-Stars Prediction & Pick: Dallas Stars: -1.5 (-118)
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