The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to see each other again on the ice for the second time in a week, with Auston Matthews and company paying the Pens a visit this Tuesday night at PPG Paints Arena. Will the Maple Leafs get back at Pittsburgh and score a victory to move further away from a recent slump? Or will the Penguins double down on their mastery of Toronto? With all that being said, let’s now take a look at our NHL odds series for this Maple Leafs-Penguins showdown scheduled at 7 PM ET.
Here are the Maple Leafs-PenguinsNHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Penguins Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-152)
Pittsburgh Penguins: -1.5 (+220)
Over: 6.5 (-130)
Under: 6.5 (+106)
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
The Maple Leafs snapped out a slump last Saturday by taking a 3-2 win at home over the Vancouver Canucks. Toronto was not looking terrific heading into that matchup, as it lost its previous two contests to the Vegas Golden Knights (4-3 OT) and to the Penguins (4-2). Those losses saw the Maple Leafs’ defense suffer a drop in form, but they were able to recover just in time against the Canucks. In the Canucks game, Erik Kallgren rejected 27 of the 29 shots he faced for his second win of the season.
Kallgren, however, is likely not starting later tonight against the Penguins, with Matt Murray reportedly scheduled to make his first start since suffering an adductor injury that kept him out for a month. Murray should feel at home in front of the net Tuesday, considering he’s played a ton of games in his career in Pittsburgh. But Toronto will have to make him more comfortable by providing him with some run support. The Maple Leafs are surprisingly not scoring at the rate you'd think a team like them should be having.
They have Auston Matthews and John Tavares healthy, but Toronto is only producing 2.81 goals for per game, which is only good enough to be ranked 23rd in the league overall. The Maple Leafs' scoring pace should be picking up sooner than later, as suggested by their 54.09 expected goals for percentage, eighth overall in the NHL. They are still doing a fine job at driving the puck down the ice and finding premium chances to score goals, It's just that those shots aren't translating yet to scores, so far this season. Toronto, which is ninth overall with a 53.99 high-danger corsi for percentage, is 21-5 in its last 26 games against teams from the Metropolitan division.
Why The Penguins Could Cover The Spread
Unlike the Maple Leafs, Pittsburgh is having lesser trouble finding the back of the net this season. The Pens are averaging nearly a goal more than Toronto, as they are eighth in the NHL with 3.60 goals for per outing. Pittsburgh has even stepped it up of late, with four goals scored in each of its last three games. The Penguins collected all those goals despite the team getting outworked on the possession front. Over that stretch, Pittsburgh posted just a 45.7 CF%. Nevertheless, the Penguins are clearly on a roll offensively and they will look to strike while they're still hot.
With a potentially rusty Murray between the pipes later tonight for the Maple Leafs, Evgeni Malkin and the Penguins could strike early and get a comfortable lead right away. The second line anchored by Malkin has been playing spectacularly in the past handful of games. Jason Zucker has three goals in the last five games, while Malkin and Rickard Rackell has three goals and six assists combined over the same span. Meanwhile, Jake Guentzel is flaming hot with four goals in the last five games. Guentzel, Zucker, and Malkin each had a goal in the win over Toronto.
It's quite a different story for the Penguins' defense. They are just 24th overall with 3.47 goals allowed per contest and have also surrendered the ninth-most total shots to opponents, thus far this season. But their physicality seems to be working, at least against Toronto. The Penguins, who have won nine of their last 13 games as the road team, are seventh with 419 total hits. They like to wear down teams with relentless body checking, which they did in the first meeting with the Maple Leafs when Pittsburgh had a dizzying sum of 41 hits to just 14 by Toronto.
Final Maple Leafs-Penguins Prediction & Pick
The Maple Leafs are playing much better than what their record suggests while the Penguins seem to be overperforming a bit. Expecting things to normalize in this rematch, with the Maple Leafs coming away with a victory this time around. Take Toronto’s puck line and moneyline.
Final Maple Leafs-Penguins Prediction & Pick: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-152)
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