The Toronto Maple Leafs are now in an 0-3 hole to the Florida Panthers. It is time to continue our NHL odds series, with a game four Maple Leafs- Panthers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
In the history of the NHL, only four teams have come back from 0-3 down. In 204 chances down 0-3, it has been just 1.9% of teams who have been able to mount that comeback. One of them happened to be the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs. They lost the first three games and were on the road for game four. They were down but came back and won game four in overtime. Then they won 9-3, 3-0, and 3-1 to win the cup. It has happened twice since the 2010 playoffs as well. The Flyers did it in 2010 over the Bruins, and the 2014 Kings did it over the Sharks. The Flyers went on to lose in the Stanley Cup Finals, while the Kings hoisted the cup that year.
The Maple Leafs will look to do it again. While the odds are stacked against them, there is a sliver of hope. For the Panthers, they will look to close out the series. they have now won six straight games and will be looking to make it seven.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Panthers Game 4 NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Playoffs Odds: Maple Leafs-Panthers Game 4 Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+184)
Florida Panthers: +1.5 (-225)
Over: 6.5 (-134)
Under: 6.5 (+110)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
If the Maple Leafs are going to pull a comeback of miracle proportions, they need to do a few major things, and quickly. It needs to start with Auston Matthews. A forty-goal scorer in the regular season, and five goals in the series against Tampa, Matthews has yet to score in the series. He has two assists in the series and is -2 rating-wise. In the overtime loss in game three, he was held to two shots and no points.
The second is William Nylander. Nylander also scores 40 in the regular season but has not scored since game two against Tampa. In the series, he has just one assist to show for his efforts. In game three, he was held to just one shot on goal in his time on the ice. Like Nylander, Mitchell Marner has not scored since game two of the Tampa series. He has been held under three shots twice in this series, has a -3 rating, and also has just one assist.
The Maple Leafs also need to get some quality goaltending. Joseph Woll should be considered for the start in this win, but both goalies have not been good in the playoffs. They are combining for a .893 save percentage, and have a 3.44 goals-against average. Samsonov was performing well in game three, saving eight of eight shots before getting injured. It was already his best performance of the series, but if the Maple Leafs want to get back into it, Samsonov or Woll will need to be solid.
Finally, there needs to be quality work on the power play. The Maple Leafs have just scored once on seven chances on the power play in the series. While they did not get an opportunity in game three, they have to make the most of those opportunities. The penalty kill has been alright, killing three out of four penalties, but if the Maple Leafs want to come back, they need to be near perfect.
Why The Panthers Could Cover The Spread
The best move of the playoffs may be the Panthers' move to Sergei Bobrovsky. He came into game three of the first-round series against Boston and saved eight of nine shots on goal. He was shaky in his next start, allowing five goals on 30 shots. Then he has been amazing. He has won six straight games, and been above .915 in save percentage in five of them while allowing three or fewer goals in each of them. He has played in three overtime games, and the Panthers have won them all.
What should be exciting for the Panthers is Matthew Tkachuk has yet to score. While that is not normally good, it is exciting if you are still winning. He scored five goals in the first round, and he has been good in this series. He has four assists on the series but has not scored. If he gets back to the scoring from the first round, this series will be over quickly. Carer Verhaeghe has been scoring though. On the series, he has two goals in three games, which brings his playoff total to four. He has been solid on the defensive end as well and has a plus-three rating overall.
The Panthers now need to have the killer instinct. They took victory in game three, coming back from a deficit twice to get the win. If they can do that again, and keep their foot on the gas, the series is over.
Final Maple Leafs-Panthers Game 4 Prediction & Pick
The Panthers have been winning in tight games. Three of their seven wins in the playoffs have been in overtime, with another one being a one-goal game. The biggest blowout of this series was a two-goal victory in game one. The Panthers are playing with more energy and look like the better team. Almost every statistical category supports that as well. Even if they do not win game four, they will cover. Still, taking Florida on the money line may be a nice payout.
Final Maple Leafs-Panthers Game 4 Prediction & Pick: Florida Panthers +1.5 (-225)
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