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The Detroit Red Wings missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs on the back of a tiebreaker with the Washington Capitals. The Red Wings were boosted by the likes of Patrick Kane, Lucas Raymond, and Dylan Larkin in 2023-24. And they hope others can step up and support the team's push for playoff hockey in 2025.
Of course, making the playoffs is much easier said than done. The Red Wings made strong moves in NHL Free Agency to bolster their roster this summer. However, other teams also made strong moves. Especially teams in Detroit's division such as the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins.
Even beyond that, there is no guarantee players who contributed last year will do so in 2024-25. Some players could regress on the ice from last year's performance. And there are two Red Wings regression candidates that fans should be aware of as the new season draws near.
Patrick Kane is a Red Wings regression candidate
Signing Patrick Kane in November proved to be smart for Detroit. The future Hall of Fame winger came off brutal hip surgery he received during the summer. Historically, players who received this surgery had not successfully come back from the procedure.
However, the Red Wings received a ton of benefit from this move. Kane scored 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games with Detroit. The Winged Wheel nearly made the playoffs thanks in large part to Kane's performance. He re-signed with the Red Wings this summer before NHL Free Agency began.
In saying this, Kane is a Red Wings regression candidate. He certainly performed well in 2023-24, but there are reasons to be concerned. Kane scored 20 goals this past season but had an Individual Expected Goals tally of 14.33, according to Evolving Hockey.
Furthermore, the future Hall of Famer outplayed his expectations in a few other areas. He finished with the third-highest Goals For Percentage (51.56) and fifth in Goals For Per 60 Minutes (2.77). These totals are well above his expected numbers. He had an Expected Goals For Percentage of 48.55 and an Expected Goals For Per 60 of 2.38.
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Kane certainly can build upon his performance from 2023-24. And the difference in actual and expected analytics can be explained, in part, by the quality of the team around him. However, it is still worth noting that the future Hall of Famer could take a step back from what we saw this past season.
Alex DeBrincat could take a step back
The Red Wings traded for Michigan native Alex DeBrincat last July hoping he could boost their offense. Detroit has struggled to score goals in years previous. DeBrincat, who had a down season with the Ottawa Senators, has two 40-goal seasons under his belt.
To start the season, DeBrincat certainly got off to a hot start. However, he became rather inconsistent as the year went on. Still, he put up 27 goals and 67 points in his first year back home. It's a solid season for the Detroit forward, though the team certainly hopes there is more to come.
DeBrincat, like Kane, could certainly build upon his previous performance. However, he also overperformed some of his analytics. For instance, his 55.34 GF% led all Red Wings forwards in 2023-24 at 5v5, according to Evolving Hockey. In saying this, his xGF% was just 48.02. The gap between his 3.29 GF/60 and 2.58 xGF/60 is also rather noteworthy.
DeBrincat has room to grow his game on the ice. If he can find consistency, he has a chance to return to the 40-goal form he had in years prior. Still, it's worth acknowledging that things could also go in the other direction in 2024-25.
