The first team going to the NIT finals will be decided as the North Texas Mean Green face-off against the Wisconsin Badgers in Las Vegas. It is time to continue our NIT odds series with a North Texas-Wisconsin prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
North Texas enters the game after an overtime win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Mean Green had the lead going into the second half, but Oklahoma State tied it up, with a back-and-forth game ensuing. With no points scored in the final 1:14, the game went to overtime where North Texas reasserted its dominance. While the Mean Green staved off the comeback, Wisconsin needed one. After losing the lead with 13:23 left in the second half, Wisconsin was down as much as eight. Wisconsin came back though, as Chucky Hepburn hit a three with 58 seconds left to give them the win. Will Conference USA dominate the NIT finals, or can Wisconsin knock off North Texas? The world finds out at 7:00 PM EST tonight.
Here are the North Texas-Wisconsin NIT odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NIT Odds: North Texas-Wisconsin Odds
North Texas Mean Green: -1.5 (-110)
Wisconsin Badgers: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 115.5 (-110)
Under: 115.5 (-110)
How To Watch North Texas vs. Wisconsin:
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why North Texas Could Cover The Spread
Since a mid-Jenauary loss to Final Four team FAU, the Mean Green have gone 11-2, including two wins over UAB. what has brought the Mean Green to this point has been their defense. North Texas is giving up 55.7 points per game in the NIT thus far, which is the same average they gave up on the season. That 55.7 points per game allowed was the best in all of the NCAA. It also helped secure them the 22nd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
The Mean Green defense also has some great depth. North Texas is potentially without big-man Abou Ousmane, which would force Moulaye Sissoko to take over that spot. This would mean he is the one slated for slowing down Tyler Wahl of Wisconsin. He should be more than suited to do the job though. Sissoko was not only a plus rebound guy on the court, but his defense also rated just as well as Ousmane, giving up similar points per possession when facing the man with the ball.
The offense is the area of concern for the Mean Green, but luckily for them, they are facing a Wisconsin team that struggled against the offensive threat that the Mean Green presents. North Texas relies more on an inside-out approach, using the pick and roll heavily. They are not a major three-point shooting team, sitting sixth in Conference USA in that regard. The pick and roll were damaging to Wisconsin this season, as they struggled to defend that, especially in Big Ten play. Tylor Perry will be leading this attack, and his 22.33 points per game so far in the NIT shows that he is up to the task. As long as Perry is efficient and the Mean Green defense plays at its best, they will win and advance to the NIT finals.
Why Wisconsin Could Cover The Spread
One of the ways that teams have tried to defeat Wisconsin this year has been by speeding up the game. Wisconsin like to play at a slow pace, being methodical in their sets and limiting possessions. This year they ranked 342nd in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Luckily for them, North Texas is not a team that can or will, speed them up. North Texas was last in the NCAA in adjusted tempo, sitting 363rd in that regard. This is a major benefit for Wisconsin, as they will be allowed to play at their pace.
The Badgers will also rely on their defensive unit. Sitting just one spot behind North Texas in adjusted defensive efficiency, Wisconsin only gave up 63.8 points per game on the season, which was 30th in the NCAA. They are giving up 63.7 so far in the NIT, but much of that is bolstered higher due to a strong Liberty offense that scored 71.
Wisconsin has found some offense in the NIT as well. On the season, the Badgers averaged just over 65 points per game, but are sitting at 72.7 points per game so far in the NIT. This has been done through strong offensive rebounding, and a high free-throw percentage, both areas the Badgers struggled in during the season. If Wisconsin can get to the line, and the combination of Crowl and Wahl can control the boards, Wisconsin will be moving on.
Final North Texas-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Neither team will want to push the pace, and both teams play stellar defense. They want to play the same style of game. While Wisconsin is the better offensive team, it is not their strong suit. North Texas is better on the glass, and in creating turnovers. This will be the difference in the game.
Final North Texas-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick: North Texas -1.5 (-110)
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