The San Diego Padres will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS. Yu Darvish is the starter for the visiting Padres, while Clayton Kershaw will take the mound for the home Dodgers. The first pitch is slated for 8:37 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Yu Darvish will make his second start of the postseason on Wednesday night. The thirty-six-year-old kicked off the postseason for San Diego last Friday in the NL Wild Card. Darvish was excellent in his 7 innings of work against the Mets – giving up 1 run on 6 hits and striking out 4. This stellar performance continued a year-long trend for the righty Darvish. He was lights out in the regular season, too. Across 30 starts Darvish went 16-8 with a .310 ERA. He struck out 197 in his 194 2/3s innings of work.
Darvish struggled much more in games outside of San Diego with his ERA climbing to 3.50 in away appearances. However, he's been incredibly effective against the Dodgers. Darvish went just 1-2 in 4 starts against LA this year but that was by no fault of his own. In 25 innings pitched the big allowed just 7 runs and struck out 31 hitters. Tonight will be Darvish's fourth start of the season in Dodger Stadium.
Southpaw Clayton Kershaw will make his 2022 postseason debut for Los Angeles. Much has been made of Kershaw's postseason adventures over his career so his performance will largely dictate our Padres-Dodgers prediction. For his career, Kershaw has gone 13-12 in the postseason with an ERA of 207. He's struck out an incredible 207 hitters in his 189 innings pitched. However, he left backers with a sweet taste in their mouths after the best postseason performance of his career in 2020 (4-1 with a 2.93 ERA).
The lefty is also coming off one of his most successful regular seasons in recent years. In 22 starts this season Kershaw went 12-3 with a pristine 2.28 ERA. He missed a month of action twice for separate injuries but has looked downright dominant since returning from IL in early September. In 6 starts since returning from injury Kershaw has gone 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He was notably effective against San Diego this year, too. In 2 starts against the Padres Kershaw allowed just a single run and only 8 hits in 12 innings.
Here are the Padres-Dodgers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-138)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+115)
Over: 7 (-114)
Under: 7 (-106)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
While the divisional series' are a best-of-five the Padres come into tonight with a “must win” mentality. Home teams who go up 2-0 in a best-of-five end up winning the series around 90 percent of the time so the Padres will look to head back to San Diego with the series tied things up.
If San Diego is going to cover 1.5, they need more from the top of their lineup. In Game 1 San Diego's 1-4 hitters went a combined 1-15. This included 0-3 and 1-4 showings from Juan Soto and Manny Machado. Padres' backers know how good those two are and how unlikely that is to happen again. While the two haven't faired very well against Kershaw in a limited sample, they're two of the best hitters in baseball.
Soto – up for a big contract – has all of the motivation in the world after a lackluster second half following his trade to San Diego. As for Machado… he's just too good to go 1-4 again. The thirty-year-old has put together an incredible career but lacks the postseason success of other stars in his peer group. He knows how important the postseason is for his legacy and he was too good in the regular season (.298 average with 32 home runs and 102 RBI) to have another quiet showing. San Diego's stars are due.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
The Dodgers are, simply put, a machine. LA covered the 1.5-point spread in game 1 thanks to an early 5-0 lead. Although they let the Padres claw back into it with a 3-run 5th, the Dodger bullpen did enough to maintain the team's 2-run lead. Shortstop Trae Turner was excellent in the series opener – going 2-4 with a solo home run. This continued an ongoing trend for Turner as he's been seeing the ball very well this season. Turner batted .298, hit 21 home runs, and drove in 100 runs in the regular season. He's been effective throughout his career against starter Yu Darvish – batting .353 in 17 plate appearances. The effectiveness of LA's best players against Darvish is something to keep in mind when making a Padres-Dodgers prediction.
Speaking of being effective against Yu Darvish, Dodgers backers will be looking for a bounce-back game from first baseman Freddie Freeman. Freeman went 0-3 with a walk in his Dodger postseason debut and will look to have a better go this time out. He's had a good deal of success against Darvish – batting .318 in 22-lifetime plate appearances matched up with the big righty. Incredibly that's a lower batting average than he accomplished in the regular season. In his first year with LA, Freeman hit .325 with 21 home runs and 100 RBI. Freeman terrorized San Diego during the regular season, too. In 67 at-bats against the Padres, he batted .343.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
I'm a believer in the 2020 playoff version of Clayton Kershaw and I think he's still the same guy despite being a little older now. It wouldn't surprise me to see San Diego keep it close but the Dodgers are too much for them to handle.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
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