It’s NBA Finals time! The Denver Nuggets have the best opportunity in the franchise’s history to win a championship up against an eight-seed, but they won’t have it all their own way against the Miami Heat.
The Heat have continually played beyond their seeming capabilities in these playoffs, knocking off many people’s championship pick in the Milwaukee Bucks, as well as their replacement in the Boston Celtics. The revered Heat culture appears to be making its mark, and has earned them a well-deserved shot at the championship as a result.
But the Nuggets are the number one seed for a reason. With Nikola Jokic confirming himself as the best in the business and Jamal Murray looking every bit the elite offensive talent which he’s long promised to be, they enter this series, and particularly Game 1 on their home floor, very well-placed. Here are three bold predictions for the Nuggets NBA Finals Game 1 vs. Heat.
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3. Nikola Jokic has 30-13-13
After being edged out for his third consecutive MVP award by Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic has re-established himself as the pre-eminent player in the eyes of the basketball world with an extraordinary playoff series to date. He’s averaging ridiculous numbers in the postseason – 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists, to be exact – and is unequivocally the driving force behind Denver’s brilliant offense.
The Serbian sensation could hardly appear less awed by the bright lights of the NBA playoffs, and rather than wilt under the pressure he appears to simply realise that he needs to do more than he would in the regular season, and then do exactly that. From ridiculous step-back three-point heaves to over-the-head assists, he can seemingly do whatever he wants, and with the Nuggets attempting to establish supremacy in this series from the outset, expect him to do exactly that.
Jokic has cracked these figures – 30-13-13 – three times in the playoffs to-date. The first was a 30-17-17 effort in Game 3 against the Phoenix Suns, while the next two were a 34-21-14 masterpiece in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers and 30-14-13 in Game 4. He’s clocked up these numbers in two of his last four games and very nearly three of his last six (he had 29-13-12 in Game 5 of the Suns’ series), and he should come out of the blocks hard and absolutely stuff the stats sheet – and do so efficiently, as always.
2. Denver Nuggets limit Miami Heat to under ten threes
One of the most striking features of Miami’s playoff run has been their three-point shooting. Let’s be clear – this is not a good shooting team. At least, I don’t think it is. In the regular season they took quite a lot – the tenth most in the league – but hit at just 34.4% – fourth worst in the league. In the playoffs, they’ve flipped that on its head, becoming the best long-range shooting team in the league.
They’ve hit 39.0% of their three-point attempts in the playoffs – the best of any team – and are hitting over 13 per game, and in their seven-game win over the Boston Celtics that number went up to an incredible 43.4%. Sometimes, stats are just unsustainable, and while the Heat seem to love to sustain seemingly unsustainable things, they will surely regress to the mean here.
Adding further to this idea is the fact that the Nuggets don’t typically give up many threes – the 33.1 per game their opposition had was the eighth lowest number in the league, and in the playoffs that’s dropped down to 28.9, and over the course of the season opponents have hit on just over 34% of them. Against the Nuggets size, the Heat will have to work hard for good looks, and it’s easy to see them failing to have the scoreboard impact from beyond the arc that they’ve had in recent times.
1. Denver Nuggets win Game 1 by 10+ points
If the above does come to fruition, things will be looking pretty dandy for the Denver Nuggets. There’s no doubting that they’ve got the more talented team; aside from having the best player in the series, they’ve also got a far more capable supporting cast. That’s not to discredit that of the Heat, a group which consistently exceeds their apparent capabilities and whose whole is so much greater than the sum of its parts. It is, however, a fact which it would be mighty difficult to dispute.
The Nuggets, as we all know, also love their home court. “It’s the altitude!” everyone cries. “And the Heat are fit.” Maybe. But the Nuggets are also really damn good, and with the added advantage of playing at home that every team enjoys, it’s no surprise that they don’t often get beat at Ball Arena. They were an incredible 34-7 at home this season, and perhaps even more incredibly, are now 8-0 there in the postseason.
Against the Lakers, both games played in Denver were close, but those aside the Nuggets have won each of their home playoff games this season by at least nine points and by an average of over 14 points. The Heat just keep on doing their thing and underestimating them is always fraught with danger, but the Nuggets should simply be too good in Game 1.
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