Chris Beard and the Ole Miss Rebels travel to Starkville to take on Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs in this heated SEC rivalry. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Ole Miss-Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Snapping a three-game skid on Saturday, Chris Beard and the Rebels are still in desperate need of resume-boosting wins. The consistent play from senior Matthew Murrell has kept the Rebels afloat, but if the supporting cast continues to falter things could go south. Ole Miss won the first edition of this rivalry three weeks ago, and a season sweep would go a long way.
After getting throttled at Alabama and losing DJ Jeffries to injury, Mississippi State responded with three straight wins to get back on track. With Jeffries returning to health and KeShawn Murphy back to form, the Bulldogs will suddenly have quality depth. Mississippi State avoids Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida over their final six games. Do not be surprised if the Bulldogs finish this season on a run.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Ole Miss-Mississippi State Odds
Ole Miss: +6.5 (-106)
Moneyline: +230
Mississippi State: -6.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -285
Over: 142.5 (-115)
Under: 142.5 (-105)
How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, the areas in which Ole Miss exploited the first matchup remain prevalent here. Ole Miss won the turnover battle by eight with 12 steals. Mississippi State only scored four points off turnovers while Ole Miss scored 18. Despite the Bulldogs' three-game win streak, they are averaging 12 turnovers per game over that span. With how tough it is to score on Mississippi State’s half-court defense, if Ole Miss can crush the turnover battle again their offense will benefit immensely.
Secondly, while Ole Miss shoots a good three-ball they do not attempt too many of them. This can come into play against a Mississippi State defense that has done a great job at defending the three. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the SEC in two-point defense allowing opponents to shoot 53% from inside the arc. If Mississippi State does clean up the turnovers and Ole Miss is not given many transition opportunities, they could see success inside. The mid-range games of Allen Flanigan and Jaemyn Brakefield were not called upon in the first matchup, but their inside scoring presence will be critical here.
Finally, Ole Miss's ability to take care of the basketball could make or break the game. Ole Miss ranks 3rd and 6th respectively in the SEC in opponent steal rate and offensive turnover rate. Alarmingly, point guard Juju Murray is coming off his season high in turnovers against Missouri with four. But in this instance with the importance of this game, I tend to think Murray will have a heightened emphasis on ball security.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Surprisingly, Mississippi State only lost the first matchup by four despite losing the points-off-turnovers battle by 14 (4-18) and Ole Miss seventh-man TJ Caldwell scoring a career-high 18 points on 4-5 from three. While Ole Miss could still take advantage of turnovers, the point I am trying to make is more Ole Miss played about as well as they could have. That type of performance would be extremely hard to replicate against a streaking rival on the road.
Also, as well as Ole Miss shot the three in the first matchup (12-30, 40%), they have not shot the ball well on the road. In the Rebels' six SEC road games, they have made more than six threes only once while shooting just 30.7%. Additionally, Mississippi State’s three-point defense at home in SEC play has been stellar. In six SEC home games, the Bulldogs have held opponents to just 27.5% from three. This includes games against quality teams like Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee.
Lastly, Mississippi State ranks 1st in the SEC in defensive rebounding allowing opponents to grab just 28% of their misses. Flip to the offensive boards where they rank 3rd in the conference while Ole Miss ranks dead last in defensive rebounding, allowing 37%. It is also important to remember that 6-10 sophomore KeShawn Murphy is back in the mix. Murphy has played 15 or more minutes in his three games back from injury, adding another body to the front-court rotation.
Final Ole Miss-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
The total in the first matchup closed at 139.5 and went over by 28.5 points. Now, we get a total set just three points higher at 142.5 with Mississippi State’s best perimeter defender, DJ Jeffries, making his way back from injury. Seems like an easy over play but the numbers say otherwise.
In SEC play, Ole Miss ranks 10th in tempo and Mississippi State 9th. These teams combined for 20 threes on 42.2% in the first matchup. When combining Ole Miss’ SEC road averages with Mississippi State’s home averages, we get a combined 13 threes on 29.1%. Replicating a performance with 20 made three-pointers is highly unlikely.
Lastly, being a must-win game for both teams leads me to believe the game flow will be far more physical and scrappy than the first time. Give me the under in a hard-fought rivalry rematch.
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Final Ole Miss-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Under 142.5 (-105)