Team USA put together one of its most complete performances of the summer on Tuesday, blowing out Brazil 122-87 in the Olympic quarterfinals. The only team left standing between the Americans and the gold-medal game? Nikola Jokic and old friend Serbia, which the United States has beaten by 26 points twice—first in an Abu Dhabi friendly then for both teams' Olympic opener in Group play—over the last three weeks.
Facing off with Jokic under single-elimination stakes doesn't exactly inspire unwavering confidence for any opposition. He's fully capable of dominating Thursday's semifinal battle between Team USA and Serbia, completely controlling the tempo offensively while ruthlessly seeking his own shot and creating quality looks for his teammates, emerging as the clear-cut best player on the floor.
It's that frightening possibility for the Americans that left ESPN insider Brian Windhorst warning them about Serbia remaining the United States' “biggest threat” for a fifth consecutive Olympic gold, recent results be damned.
“Serbia is still the biggest threat to the US,” Windhorst said on the most recent episode of The Hoop Collective.” And I know it's a tough sell because you say, ‘Well, they just beat them by 26.' The only thing I can say about that is that both times the U.S. played Serbia they've been red-hot from three-point range. Red-hot. When the U.S. plays Serbia it's an uncomfortable style of game.”
Let's just say Golden State Warriors star and two-time Olympic gold medalist Draymond Green doesn't agree with that assessment of Team USA's remaining competition in Paris.
Draymond Green's take on Team USA's competition ahead of Olympic Semifinals
It's not the best player in the world and his veteran teammates who stand tallest between the Team USA and another gold, at least as Green sees it. Why? A palpable lack of dynamism alongside Jokic, especially on the perimeter.
“Windy talking about Serbia is the biggest threat to Team USA? Stop it,” Green said. “Here’s why that don’t work. That doesn’t work because they have Joker, no question. They don’t have a guard that can compete with Tyrese Haliburton. That is ZERO disrespect to Tyrese Haliburton, but Tyrese Haliburton has been the guard out of the rotation for Team USA…If Serbia had Hali, it’d be a different story, they could compete more. They don’t have the guard play, they don’t have the play around Joker to compete with Team USA.
“Them guys around him?” he said of Jokic's teammates. “Ain’t gonna do it, no chance.”
Green clearly doesn't believe in Serbia, which played the Americans to a draw during Jokic's 31 minutes in the Olympic opener. Telling as that wild stat is of Jokic's all-around impact, there's no arguing the ripples of his playmaking influence don't extend nearly as far with less talented teammates surrounding him. The Denver Nuggets superstar isn't a full-time participant for his home country on the international stage, either, robbing Serbia of the massive continuity advantage other opponents possess over Team USA.
An upstart France squad, meanwhile, has an entire country behind them as Victor Wembanyama only just begins building his local legend, but Green isn't concerned about the host nation, either. Though Canada boasted by far the most NBA players of any team in the Olympic field outside the United States, its neighbors to the north fell to the French in shocking fashion in the quarterfinals.
Which foe does that leave as the sharpest thorn in the Americans' side? Germany, according to Green, the same team that took home FIBA World Cup gold just a year ago and almost came back to beat Team USA during its final pre-Olympic tuneup on July 22nd in London.
“The next best team in the Olympics is Germany,” he said. “They’re the second-best team. The gap between 1 and 2 is very significant, but 1 and 2 is Team USA and Germany.”
Anyone paying attention to what's gone down in France would have a tough time arguing that conclusion.
Germany has won each of its four games by at least 13 points, overcoming a slow start to put away Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece for good in the fourth quarter during the quarterfinals. Dennis Schroder brought his superhero cape to the Olympics, once again staking his claim as international basketball's best guard. Franz Wagner continues leveling up toward full-fledged stardom despite ongoing struggles with his jumper, and Germany has enough talented size and depth on the wing and up front to make life hard for the Americans on both ends.
Nothing is guaranteed for Team USA at the Olympics. Even if Germany really does pose more of a threat to the United States than Serbia, it's fair to say Jokic and company have a better chance of taking down the U.S. in the semifinals than France does the Germans, home-court advantage not withstanding.
But if past results prove prophetic and realistic expectations prove true, a clash between Team USA and Germany for gold seems inevitable—and one that could be an instant Olympic classic.
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