Bowl season continues on Friday with the Orange Bowl. The #6 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) take on the #7 Clemson Tigers (11-2). The action kicks off at 8 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Tennessee-Clemson prediction and pick.
Tennessee is 10-2 and finished second in the SEC East. The Volunteers are 9-3 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over the projected point total. Clemson finished 11-2 en route to winning the ACC Championship. The Tigers are 7-6 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. Both teams will be making a sizable trip down to Miami with Clemson traveling 745 miles and Tennessee traveling 860 miles.
Here are the Tennessee-Clemson college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Orange Bowl Odds: Tennessee-Clemson Odds
Tennessee Volunteers: +5.5 (-115)
Clemson Tigers: -5.5 (-105)
Over: 63.5 (-110)
Under: 63.5 (-110)
Why Tennessee Could Cover The Spread
Tennessee put together an incredible season and flirted with the College Football Playoff thanks to their explosive offense. The Volunteers feature the most prolific offense in the country as they rank first in both scoring (47.3 PPG) and total offense (538 YPG). They are, however, vulnerable on defense, ranking 44th in points allowed (23.5 PPG) and 85th in total defense (399 YPG). Tennessee picked up a number of key wins this season including a 27-point victory over then-25th-ranked LSU and a narrow home win over then-third-ranked Alabama. Tennessee will notably be without quarterback Hendon Hooker due to injury, while wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman both opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft.
If Tennessee is going to cover as sizable underdogs, they're going to need their run game to excel. Tennessee slightly favored the run, especially once Hooker went down with an injury. The Volunteers run the ball 54% of the time and rank 18th in rushing offense (206 YPG). Tennessee utilizes a number of backs, but sophomore Jaylen Wright and junior Jabari Small lead the way. Both players rushed at least 135 times this season, with Wright leading the way with 786 yards (5.8 YPC). He tacked on 10 touchdowns. Wright is coming off an incredible performance against Vanderbilt that saw him rush for 160 yards and two scores on just five carries. That's an average of 32 yards per carry. While he can't be expected to be that productive against Clemson, his tendency for explosive plays will surely play a factor in a potential Tennessee cover.
Junior Jabari Small had a strong season in his own right, rushing for 696 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns. Small was incredibly reliable and finished the season strong by amassing four scores in his last three games. Both backs will have their work cut out for them against Clemson's 11th-ranked rush defense. With both teams excelling in the trenches, this game will likely come down to who can win the battle up front.
Why Clemson Could Cover The Spread
Clemson hovered around the top 10 all season long thanks to their strong all-around team. The Tigers rank 25th in the country in scoring (34.7 PPG) and 53rd in total offense (405 YPG). They are stout defensively, ranking 19th in points allowed (20.1 PPG) and 25th in total defense (331 YPG). Clemson won big games over then-10th-ranked North Carolina State and then-23rd-ranked North Carolina. Clemson will be without their best defensive player as DE Myles Murphy opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft.
Clemson's offense is very balanced but slightly prefers the run game as they keep it on the ground 53% of the time. Sophomore Will Shipley put together an incredible season for the Tigers, rushing for 1,110 yards and 15 touchdowns. He scored in all but two of Clemson's games this season and was a focal point week in and week out. Tennessee's strength on defense is against the run, as they rank 19th in rushing defense (112 YPG).
With the Volunteers stout against the run, the biggest X-factor for Clemson is that of quarterback Cade Klubnik. The true freshman started his first career game in the ACC Championship game and looked phenomenal. In Clemson's blowout victory, Klubnik completed 20-24 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown. He added 30 yards and another score on the ground as he demonstrated his dual-threat versatility. Clemson's offense looked much-improved with Klubnik at the helm and he'll have a great opportunity to build some momentum heading into next season on Friday. Tennessee allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game during the regular season (287 YPG) – setting Klubnik up for a huge day.
Final Tennessee-Clemson Prediction & Pick
Clemson looked like an entirely different team after their quarterback change. I like them to handle Tennessee with ease based on how the Volunteers played down the stretch.
Final Tennessee-Clemson Prediction & Pick: Clemson Tigers -5.5 (-105)
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