The Boston Red Sox host the San Diego Padres for the finale of a 3-game set at Fenway Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Red Sox prediction and pick. The Friars and Red Sox meet for Game 2 Saturday evening.

Padres-Red Sox Projected Starters 

Matt Waldron vs. Josh Winckowski

Matt Waldron (5-6) with a 3.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 89.1 innings.

Last Start: 6.0 innings, five hits, two earned runs, two walks, and eight K's in the 7-6 win over Washington.

2024 Road Splits: (3-2) with a 2.86 ERA in 50.1 innings. Also has 45 K's and 19 walks on the road.

Josh Winckowski (1-1) with a 3.26 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 27 K's in 30.1 innings.

Last Start: 6.0 innings, six hits, two earned runs, one walk, and eight strikeouts in the 9-4 loss to Toronto.

2024 Home Splits: (0-1) with a 4.05 ERA in just two starts. He has five appearances from the bullpen at home. He has 17 K's in 20 innings at home.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Padres-Red Sox Odds

San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+138)

Moneyline: -104

Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-166)

Moneyline: -112

Over: 10 (-110)

Under: 10 (-110)

How to Watch Padres vs. Red Sox

Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35 AM PT

TV: NESN, MLB.TV

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win

Note: All stats are prior to Saturday's game against Boston

The Padres are hot right now. They have won eight of their last nine games and are coming off an emphatic sweep over the Washington Nationals. The headliner of that series was Jurickson Profar, who is having a career season. The future All-Star is doing it all for the Friars and in a season where they desperately needed him to. Profar signed with SD on a one-year million-dollar deal. Now, Profar is third in the MLB in batting average at .316, and has 11 homers, 55 RBIs (tied for 10th), a .894 OPS (12th), with 43 drawn walks on the year. He's second on the team in hits behind Luis Arraez but has clearly been their best hitter for SD all year long. If Profar stays hot the Padres will have a chance to cover this spread.

Matt Waldron is turning heads with his knuckleball on the bump. He had seven whiffs on that pitch in his last start. In his last nine starts, Waldron has a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 55 K's in 55.1 innings. He is becoming damn-near unhittable when he has his stuff going.

Jake Cronenworth is having a phenomenal year as well. The lefty is batting .263 with a .772 OPS. Furthermore, he is tied with Profar with a team-leading 139 total bases and he is right behind his teammate with 52 RBIs. Cronenworth has more extra-base hits than anyone on the team with 31. Another name to keep an eye out for is Jackson Merrill. The rookie hit a home run in the opener and is up to 11 on the year, leading all rookies.

San Diego is 2nd in MLB with a team batting average of .261, behind the Houston Astros at .264. SD is also fifth in baseball with 385 RBIs. They remain the league leader in hits with 760. The next highest is Houston with 732.

Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win

Note: All stats are prior to Saturday's game against San Diego

The Red Sox have one of the league's top offenses as well. They are 7th in team batting average at .253, 6th in OPS at .741, 7th in slugging, and 7th in hits with 702. I guess you could say they have the 7th best offense in baseball. They can score runs as well as anyone and have done so recently. Since the loss against the Yankees in the series opener on June 14, the Sox have scored at least seven runs in six of their last 11 games. Jalen Duran remains the one Red Sox who plays every day and leads the team in hits, extra-base hits, total bases, and WAR at 4.3.

Rafael Devers, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Tyler O'Neill round out their top hitters. Devers and O'Neill have had a great season hitting a combined 33 home runs. Devers hit one in the opener and very well could hit another in this finale if he connects with a Waldron fastball.

Boston lost Game 1 because of a terrible 5th inning where they allowed nine runs without registering an out. That type of inning won't happen again and as long as Winckowski can give them a solid five innings, they can cover this spread at home. He has only done that once this season, but it was in his last start. We will see if he can extend his innings once again.

Final Padres-Red Sox Prediction & Pick

The finale good be a bullpen game for the Red Sox, especially if Winckowski can survive more than 4-5 innings. Because of that, I expect the Padres to find a way to cover the spread on the road to keep their hot streak going.

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Final Padres-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+138)