Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots got their man, hiring Mike Vrabel to become their next head coach on Sunday.
While a lot more needs to happen this offseason, hiring Mayo is a strong step in the right direction for the Patriots. The former Tennessee Titans head coach had four winning seasons in his six-year stint with the team, a far cry from where they were this year with Jerod Mayo as they went 4-13 for a second straight season before firing him.
So, let's dish out some predictions and what to expect with Vrabel running the show in 2025.
The Patriots will make a major investment at running back
Vrabel has made it obvious in the past how much he enjoys running the ball, with the Titans finishing top 10 in the league in rushing attempts in all but one of his six seasons as their head coach. Of course, having Derrick Henry for all six of those years certainly helped and played a big reason for why the Titans ranked high in that stat.
But as the ground game is a major part of Vrabel's style, it's easy to think that the Patriots will also be among the teams who run the ball the most in 2025. However, Rhamondre Stevenson had a second straight underwhelming season as he rushed for 801 yards on just 3.9 yards per carry with six fumbles (three lost).
Even though Stevenson was extended last offseason, it's clear that he can't be the top running back for a team that wants to run the ball a lot. The only issue is that there isn't a Saquon Barkley or a Derrick Henry that will be available in free agency this offseason. Najee Harris could be a reasonable fit in New England, though, if the Patriots opt to move on from Stevenson entirely while drafting another in the middle rounds. New England would only lose a little more than $2 million in cap space if it releases Stevenson with a post-June 1 designation.
If the Patriots want to keep Stevenson in the fold, maybe they use their early second-round pick on running back to help spell their veteran and add playmaking out of the backfield. Boise State's Ashton Jeanty would certainly fit the mold of a receiver who has dual-threat ability and explosiveness that the Patriots lack.
Regardless, there should be an expectation that the Patriots shake up their running back room in a major way this offseason.
The Patriots will draft either Abdul Carter or Mason Graham with the No. 4 pick

There are several prospects that will likely be available for the Patriots when they're on the clock with the fourth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter would give them outside explosiveness at wide receiver that they haven't had in years if they were to draft either of them. LSU's Will Campell and Texas' Kelvin Banks could be the left tackle to protect Maye for years to come. Michigan's Will Johnson could give the Patriots two cornerbacks with elite upside for the foreseeable future.
Just as Vrabel did during his career, though, his Titans teams had their best seasons when they could get to the quarterback. After Vrabel's first season as head coach in Tennessee, the team selected defensive tackle Jefferey Simmons with its first-round pick. He's been a catalyst for that unit ever since, consistently ranking high up in tackles, sacks and pressures for interior defensive lineman.
After the Patriots' front seven had a dreadful 2024, there's a player in this class who has a Simmons-like upside that can possibly turn things around in an instant. Michigan's Mason Graham has been one of the best run stoppers in college football over the last couple of seasons while generating a good deal of pressure from the interior. He would certainly fit the mold of a Vrabel-like player with his grit and toughness.
The Titans also drafted Harold Landry in the second round in Vrabel's first offseason with the team as he's provided significant help along the edge in Tennessee. If the Patriots opt to build their front seven from the outside in, Penn State's Abdul Carter is certainly worthy of a top-five pick after a 12-sack season in Happy Valley.
Former Titans executive Ryan Cowden, who worked with Vrabel during his entire tenure in Tennessee, will reportedly be joining the new Patriots head coach. Considering how their decision to highly invest in their front seven in their first two drafts paid off, it wouldn't be a surprise if Carter or Graham end up in Foxborough.
Drake Maye will finish top five in rushing touchdowns

Alright, now for some actual on-field predictions. As Vrabel has to fill out his staff, initial reports suggest that former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the early favorite to get the gig that rose him to prominence.
If McDaniels gets the job, we might see Drake Maye be used more as a runner. McDaniels seemed to suggest that Maye might be strong-suited as a designed runner when he spoke about the quarterback on Julian Edelman's podcast, “Games with Names” during the preseason.
“He's got great size. He's really athletic. I don't know where he'll fit in the style he'll play with. I'm interested to see how that style develops. … But guys like that, who have those kind of attributes, you can use them to run the ball, too.”




Considering Vrabel's preference to run the ball and McDaniels' comment, it does seem like Maye is set to be used more as a designed runner in 2025. Now, those designed runs might not happen in the open field much. But using his size and quickness would be best suited for red zone situations, where he can either barrel over defenders between the tackle or beat defenders on the outside, like he did in his touchdown run against the New York Jets this season.
Ryan Tannehill also used his legs to score when he played under Vrabel as well. He had seven rushing touchdowns in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Maye, though, is a better runner than Tannehill was. So, when you add all of those things up, it should almost be expected to see Maye running into the end zone a good amount next season.
The Patriots will have a top-10 defense again

While the offensive woes of the Patriots continued in 2024 and seemed to dominate headlines, their fall on defense was the biggest concern. They went from seventh in total yards allowed in 2023 to 22nd this past season. They were toward the bottom of the league in sacks with 28 and they only forced 12 turnovers.
Those numbers should improve under Vrabel in 2025. They'll likely get linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentler and defensive tackle Christian Barmore back from injury, which will certainly help. But it seems like Vrabel will have a strong hand in personnel matters and when you consider his defensive background, don't be shocked if the Patriots wind up spending more money in free agency acquiring defensive talent than offensive players.
There are likely more players at positions of need for the Patriots set to free agency as well in the offseason. Edge rushers Azeez Ojulari and Josh Sweat could be options for them. Safeties Jevon Holland and Talanoa Hufanga would help their back line after Kyle Dugger's struggles this year. Cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Charvarius Ward would serve as strong CB2 options opposite of Christian Gonzalez.
When you consider how volatile defenses are on a year-to-year basis, the resources to improve their defense and their schedule for 2025 (games against the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers), it should almost be expected that the Patriots' defense will be noticeably better in 2025. When you add a coach like Vrabel to the mix, though, they should crack the top 10 again.
The Patriots will sneak in the postseason at 9-8
Going back to that list of opponents, the Patriots' schedule for 2025 is set to be one of the easier ones in the league. Eleven of their 17 games next season are against teams who had a losing record in 2024. Eight of their games will be against opponents who won five or fewer games in 2024.
Sure, those teams will likely look at the Patriots' as a likely win on the schedule at this point in the offseason. There's also still a lot of moves to be made. But there were a handful of games this season where a coaching decision might have swung the final result against the Patriots. Their clock mismanagement allowed the Seattle Seahawks to find three points before halftime in their Week 2 loss. They opted not to go for two after Maye's touchdown pass at the buzzer against the Titans. They never doubled Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp in their one-score loss to the Los Angeles Rams as their star receivers shredded them. They weren't aggressive after a key turnover late in their loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
Obviously, you can always play the second-guessing game with any team. But the Patriots' blunders under Mayo seemed to exceed most others, costing them games against teams that they were either on equal footing against or wins that were within reach.
Vrabel will certainly raise the floor in New England like he did in Tennessee. When you look at the Patriots' quality of opponents for next season, having a higher floor might be enough to make the postseason just off that alone. Add in Maye's likely progression and an expected improvement on defense and the Patriots might win a game or two they shouldn't have.
With Vrabel in town, there should be more winnable games on the table moving forward. They'll win most of them to make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the AFC.