Battling for a spot in the playoffs has become much more intense since the creation of the NBA Play-In Tournament. The New Orleans Pelicans are trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament, securing a top-six seed in the playoffs.
As are LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Luka Doncic, who are all in danger of facing win-or-go-home situations just to advance into a seven-game series. Earning a top-six seed affords team a week of rest alongside bypassing the grueling Play-In Tournament. New Orleans has one big advantage going their way in the heated Western Conference race.
The history-making Pelicans (36-25) will have played more games through March 4 than any other team fighting for one of the last guaranteed playoff spots. The currently fifth-placed New Orleans will next visit the lottery-bound Toronto Raptors (22-38) on March 5, and Willie Green's group will have enjoyed three days off before playing that lone game across the border. That's big for two reasons, both in Canada and carrying through down the stretch run.
Games played math favors Pelicans
First, more games played means fewer in the way before the NBA Playoffs begin. That leads to fresher legs and more matchups where the Pelicans will have a rest advantage or at least be on equal footing. That was not the case earlier in the season, and still Green has this year's team playing at a near-historic pace.
The Pelicans are 2-0 in games after four days of rest. They won the season opener against the Memphis Grizzlies and beat the Houston Rockets after the NBA All-Star break. The next time New Orleans can get a four-day mini-vacation is the playoffs, but only if they earn a top-six seed. Zion Williamson and company are 7-3 with two or three days rest and 9-6 with a rest advantage regardless of days off.
The Crescent City crew are 4-8 with a rest disadvantage of any time and 4-6 on the back half of their 10 back-to-back sets. Fortunately for New Orleans, the Pelicans have only three back-to-back sets remaining on the schedule.
Four of those six games are against Western Conference foes. The first consists of two home dates against the Los Angeles Clippers (3/15) and Portland Trail Blazers (3/16). The Clippers are reeling since Russell Westbrook fractured a hand. Portland has already started planning for a busy offseason.
The second and third back-to-back sets are a pair of the most manageable logistically. Facing the Orlando Magic (3/21) and Miami Heat (3/22) means a quick trip down I-95. The Pelicans visit the Sacramento Kings (4/11) and Golden State Warriors (4/12) but the season finale at home against the Los Angeles Lakers (4/14). It's impossible to predict which franchises will be playing for seeding, and which will be playing out the string.
The Kings and Lakers still have to make the tough trip to see the Raptors. Both get Toronto on the first night of a back-to-back set before taking a connecting flight to Washington D.C. The Kings and Clippers both have six back-to-back sets remaining. The Golden State Warriors have five. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns have four.
Rest not rust to finish regular season
The Pelicans will have a rest advantage in five games during March. If New Orleans drops into the NBA Play-In Tournament games it will not be due to tired legs. That excuse will not fly considering every other team has it worse. CJ McCollum admitted as much during the All-Star break, via ESPN.
“We talked about five games in seven days that we have. Coming out with a back-to-back. Then we have a gap of six games in about 14 or 15 days, shout out to the schedule gods,” McCollum said. “We're excited about that.”
Basketball generally gets exciting with NCAA conference tournaments kicking off the first week of March and going through the NBA Finals in June. The madness starts for New Orleans on April Fool's hosting the Suns.
The Orlando Magic (4/3) and San Antonio Spurs (4/5) will shuttle through the Smoothie King Center during the second week of spring. The next seven days will be brutal, especially if Willie Green's group has not created any separation from the Play-In pack.
The Pelicans have four road games in six days before hosting the Lakers in the regular season finale. The Suns (4/7), Trail Blazers (4/9), Kings (4/11), and Warriors (4/12) will all have something to play for that final week. Portland is the only team looking to lose to improve their NBA lottery odds.
Golden State is in a weak position with more road games remaining than home. Curry's Warriors also have no more rest-advantage games and are four wins behind the Pelicans. The Lakers have a league-high four breaks of two days or more but only 20 games left to make up ground.
For instance, if the Pelicans win 10 more games the Lakers would have to go 14-6 the rest of the way just to draw level on record.
The Mavericks will be dangerous. They have only one remaining rest-disadvantage game all season. However, advantages only matter for so long. There is so little time remaining.
The Pelicans will not have to worry about any scoreboard watching or complex tiebreaker math if they just win at home and beat lottery teams on the road. Do that and Willie Green's locker room will celebrate a 50-win season.
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