The Tampa Bay Lightning return home from a three-game road trip to take on the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Penguins-Lightning prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Penguins looked like they would make one more run with Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and the addition of Erik Karlsson. They have lost five of seven games and only won ten of their last 21. Jake Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson are leading the team in points, but the depth scoring has again caused problems for the Penguins. Their downfall in recent years has been their inability to get contributions from the bottom half of their lineup, and they have the same problem in this 21-game stretch.

The Lightning went out on a three-game road trip looking to make their way up the Atlantic division standings. It looked like they were ready to make a statement when they scored a season-high eight goals in an 8-2 demolition of the Carolina Hurricanes. They went out West to meet the Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes, but their offense didn't make the trip, losing 4-1 and 3-1 for a disappointing end to the trip. The Lightning are 4-6-2 on the road this season but have fared much better on home ice. They are supplemented by the return of one of the best goaltenders in the league, Andrei Vasilevskiy. He was out of the lineup due to back surgery but returned during the road trip.

Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NHL Odds: Penguins-Lightning Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins: +1.5 (-192) ML (+120)

Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+158) ML (-144)

Over: 6.5 (-115)

Under: 6.5 (-105)

How to Watch Penguins vs. Lightning

Time: 7 PM ET/ 4 PM PT

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Penguins Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Penguins' strength this season has been their defensive play. They allow only 2.62 goals per game and only five in the last two games. Erik Karlsson has been a valued part of their top four despite concerns that he would hurt their defensive play. Ryan Graves has been a solid, stay-at-home alternative for Karlsson that gives shades of the Karlsson and Marc Methot pairing with the Ottawa Senators when Karlsson was at the peak of his powers. Tristan Jarry was a concern for the Penguins last season but has a .916 save percentage and a 2.48 goals-against average this year.

Andrei Vasilevsky has been struggling since returning from offseason surgery, allowing five goals on 46 shots. That was to be expected, as he had a surprise back injury in training camp that forced him to have surgery. The Penguins can jump on the Lightning here before Vasilevskiy returns to 100%. They also meet the Lightning when their offense has been struggling, only managing to score two goals in two games against Colorado and Arizona. Colorado and Arizona are two teams that have been struggling to keep the puck out of the net, so Tampa Bay will be in tough against a Pittsburgh team that has been performing well on the defensive end.

Why The Lightning Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Lightning's lack of offense on the back half of their road trip shouldn't be a cause for concern. They are averaging 3.48 goals per game and are still led by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos. Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul are supplementing the offense with depth scoring, which the Penguins lack. The Lightning also get plenty of contributions from the back end, as Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev have chipped in 38 points.

No offense to Jonas Johansson, but he isn't Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning accepted that their team defense would take a hit when they gave the starting role to Johansson in Vasilevskiy's absence. However, now that Vasilevskiy is back, they will take more pride in keeping the puck out of the back of their net. In his first two games back, he wasn't the Conn Smythe-winning goalie of old, but a small amount of rust was to be expected. A return to home ice and his third full game should be enough to bring back the old Vasilevskiy tonight. If he isn't on his game, there's a good chance that the Lightning players will be playing hard in front of him to get him back on track.

Final Penguins-Lightning Prediction & Pick

Most numbers going into this game are saying to back the Penguins. Pittsburgh has been great defensively, but their offense hasn't been able to outscore the opposition. Tampa Bay has been elite offensively but unable to keep the puck out of their net. The Lightning have also been struggling as of late to score, managing only one goal in each of their last two games. Both teams are veteran-led and will come into this game to try and break their losing streaks with a business mindset. So, which team will have the upper hand?

The Lightning will have a lot of motivation heading into this game. Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely get the start in his first game on home ice since his injury. The Lightning's forwards are upset about their lack of production in the last two games, especially against a team like the Arizona Coyotes. The Lightning will show up tonight with two things on their mind: producing plenty of offense and getting Vasilevskiy a win on his return to Amalie Arena.

Final Penguins-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Lightning ML (-144)