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Tuesday night's reveal of the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings was never going to satisfy everyone. Even with the expansion to 12 teams this year, there was always going to be someone left out. Controversial decisions by the committee were inevitable—and they delivered.
Just as debates raged in the four-team playoff era over who would be left sitting at No. 5, this year the spotlight was on who would be the odd team out at No. 12. That dubious honor went to the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes, edged out by a 9-3 Alabama Crimson Tide team at No. 11.
You could almost hear the collective groans from across the country—those specifically with “Bama fatigue.” Meanwhile, there was likely a sigh of relief in Tuscaloosa, while the waves of South Beach were increased by the salty tears of Miami fans.
Miami is out. Alabama is in. None of it is surprising. But this is college football. This is the College Football Playoff system. And this is the imperfect, yet captivating nature of the sport.
Trying to make sense of the rankings—or the sport itself—is an exercise in futility. And yet, that chaos is part of the charm.
Sure, some are elated today. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, and the entire state of Alabama are celebrating. On the other hand, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, Miami coach Mario Cristobal, and South Florida are left shaking their heads. But the reality is, everyone is just trying to rationalize it all—because, truthfully, so much about it defies logic.
1. Miami dropped six spots
When Alabama dropped from No. 7 to No. 13 in Week 13 after getting manhandled by Oklahoma and failing to score a single touchdown, many assumed the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes were extinguished. But you just knew they weren’t out for good. Sure enough, they’re back in the fold at No. 11, leapfrogging a 10-2 Miami Hurricanes team.
Miami’s most recent loss came on the road to Syracuse—now ranked No. 22—by just four points, and before that, a five-point loss to Georgia Tech on the road. Alabama, on the other hand, has three losses, including two against barely bowl-eligible teams, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Miami’s stumble cost them a shot at the ACC Championship, which likely factored into the committee’s decision. But even if Miami had made the conference title game and lost to SMU, would they still have been snubbed for Alabama? The playoff committee's logic says yes.
If you’re a program outside the SEC or Big Ten, the message is clear: You’d better be perfect because that’s the only thing that matters.
2. SMU might be out with a loss to Clemson
The committee’s chair, Warde Manuel, said that while the at-large rankings are mostly set, conference championship results could still alter the final picture. When asked whether SMU could lose its spot with a defeat to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, Manuel responded, “Potentially, yes,” per CBS Sports’ John Talty.
This raises the question: Is the committee against the ACC or just in love with the SEC, particularly Alabama?
“It’s hard to overstate how much brand damage the CFP committee did to itself by keeping Florida State out last year,” wrote The Athletic’s Chris Vannini. “Just fueled every SEC/ESPN conspiracy imaginable and negated the purpose of playing and winning games. Still hate it.”
It’s worth noting the SEC and ESPN have a lucrative 10-year deal in place that went into effect this season.
3. Georgia will still be in with a third loss?
The Bulldogs face Texas in the SEC Championship Game, but what happens if they lose? The committee claims teams aren’t punished for losing in conference title games—unless you’re not in the SEC. If Georgia and SMU both lose, a three-loss Georgia team should be the odd one out, but let’s be honest, it likely wouldn’t happen.
4. Notre Dame sits at No. 4 with the worst loss in the country
If this were last year's four-team playoff format, Notre Dame would be comfortably in. Luckily, it's not, but still, how do you justify their ranking when they have one of the worst losses of any playoff contender this season? The Fighting Irish fell to Northern Illinois—a 7-5 team that finished sixth in the MAC—at home.
Notre Dame also doesn’t play in a conference championship game and has just one win over a currently ranked team. Yet, they sit at No. 4, with the No. 57 ranked strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Miami, with a better strength of schedule (No. 55), was booted in favor of Alabama for two close losses on the road. The math doesn’t add up.
5. Ohio State drops just four spots after losing to Michigan
Ohio State suffered its fourth consecutive loss to Michigan in what might be Ryan Day’s most crushing defeat yet. The Buckeyes fell at home to a Wolverines team that was on the brink of a .500 season. Yet, they only dropped four spots in the rankings with their second loss. Again, Miami dropped six spots after losing their second game to a team that finished 9-3 and ranked.
While SEC favoritism often steals the spotlight, the Big Ten’s influence on the committee is just as apparent.
This is the current state of college football
Don’t expect this system to change anytime soon. The College Football Playoff rankings are riddled with human bias, reliant on subjective metrics like “eye tests,” strength of schedule, and “quality wins.” Wins and losses don't matter anymore.
In many ways, college football operates like professional wrestling. Where the WWE has writers crafting storylines to build their championship events, college football has its committee shaping its national title narrative. No, it’s not predetermined—but it sure feels premeditated.
