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Saint Mary's, the number one team in the West Coast Conference, hosts Pepperdine on Thursday night. It will be the team's first matchup of the season, with St Mary's holding a four-game winning streak over the Waves. It is time to continue our men's college basketball odds series with a Pepperdine-Saint Mary's prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Pepperdine ended a six-game losing streak with a 72-63 win over Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Michael Ajayi will be one of the Waves' only hopes to upset Saint Mary's in this matchup. He averages 17.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this season, shooting 45.5% from three. Ajayi will be a name to watch in the 2024 draft and look to add to his resume in this game.
Saint Mary's is running away with the WCC, and road wins over San Francisco and Gonzaga are reasons to believe that the Gaels are national contenders this season. They've done it on the strength of their defense, a trait that will serve them well in March and April. In games they needed to win against other powers in the conference, they held Gonzaga to 62 points and San Francisco to 60. Their defensive numbers may be skewed by games against Pacific, where they allowed 28 and 43 points, but it's hard to ignore their success against some of the better teams. Saint Mary's is also one of the best road teams in the country, boasting an 8-0 record.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Pepperdine-Saint Mary's Odds
Pepperdine: +19.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +1600
Saint Mary's: -19.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -4500
Over: 132.5 (-110)
Under: 132.5 (-110)
How to Watch Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary's
Time: 11 PM ET/8 PM PT
TV: CBSSN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Pepperdine Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pepperdine may show signs of a bounceback after beating Loyola Marymount on Saturday as 6.5-point underdogs. It was the second straight game that the Waves covered after being on a streak of five straight against-the-spread defeats. It was also their first outright win in the last seven.
Why Saint Mary's Will Cover The Spread/Win
From the onset, there isn't much to like about Pepperdine's game. They are one of the worst defending teams in the country, ranking 356th, allowing opponents to shoot 47.9% from the floor. The Waves' best quality on defense is their rebounding, but Saint Mary's also prides themselves on cleaning up the glass. Saint Mary's is second in the country in defensive rebounds allowed and one of the best offensive rebounding teams.
Saint Mary's will limit Pepperdine's offense in this matchup. The Waves average 72.5 points per game, which rises in conference and on the road. However, Saint Mary's is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot just 38.6% from the floor and score 57.7 points per game. They are also the best rebounding team on the defensive end.
Saint Mary's is making themselves the new power of the WCC. They are on a 12-game winning streak, which includes an 8-4 mark against the spread. Some of those losses against the spread were a 15-point win as 16-point favorites and an 11-point win as 13-point favorites. The Gaels are on a mission to win the WCC, and Pepperdine shouldn't be able to knock them from that trajectory.
Final Pepperdine-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick
The Gaels are 11-0 in WCC play and are five games away from a perfect conference record. It won't be easy, as games with San Francisco and Gonzaga stand in their way. They've already defeated those teams on the road, but it's never easy. Two of the five games are against Pepperdine, a team Saint Mary's should easily handle. You could worry about Saint Mary's taking those matchups lightly with more difficult look-ahead spots on the schedule, but the statistics tell you that the Gaels should run away with this game.
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Final Pepperdine-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick: Saint Mary's -19.5 (-110)
