The Miami Heat are hoping to make another run to the NBA Finals, and Pat Riley has always been known for his relentless pursuit of big-name star players. It’s clear that their current core is not quite talented enough to truly contend, but a major trade could change that. The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled to a 1-8 start to open the 2024 season, and they could be forced to take drastic measures sooner rather than later. Could Riley try and make a deal for Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo? Let’s find out.
The centerpiece of a Heat-Giannis Antetokounmpo trade
Any deal that Miami offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo or any other star will have to be centered around one or multiple players who are viewed favorably throughout the league. The primary players who can fit this description are Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro. Other players, who could be included as secondary assets are Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, and Thomas Bryant. One or multiple of these players will almost certainly have to be involved in any deal, but a fair offer will have to be built around at least one of Adebayo, Herro, or Butler.
It makes the most sense for the Heat to trade Adebayo. He’s arguably the best player of the three, although he might not have the postseason track record of Butler. However, Adebayo is in his prime, while Butler is on the wrong side of 35 and Adebayo is widely viewed as a better player than Herro, who also fits better alongside Giannis.
Why deal Bam Adebayo over Tyler Herro?
The main reason that the Heat should prepare to include Adebayo over Herro in any deal is twofold. First, Adebayo is a slightly better overall player. While this may seem counterproductive at first glance to make an effort to trade the better of the two players, it will ultimately lower the total cost of the deal, which is important since Miami doesn’t have a lot of assets to send out in any transaction involving a superstar such as Giannis.
The other reason that the Heat should prefer to deal Adebayo is because he replicates much of what Giannis does on the court. It would serve Pat Riley better to have players who complement each other rather than players who duplicate the same skill sets. Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the league, but Giannis is a top-five defender in the entire NBA when he is locked in. Giannis can also defend all five positions as well as, if not better than, Adebayo.
Adebayo is a slightly better outside shooter than Giannis is, but neither of them is elite in that department. This is why keeping Herro is so crucial to the Heat's long-term plans. Herro will provide something that Giannis doesn’t in terms of shooting from beyond the arc. His ability to space the floor will be critical to the success of an offensive core built around himself, Giannis, and Jimmy Butler.
The Heat don’t have a lot of assets, particularly draft capital
The Heat are dangerously low on draft capital that they can send out in a major transaction. The only first-round pick that Pat Riley can trade as of right now is his pick in either 2030 or 2031.
Also, any deal involving a superstar and centered around draft capital will require at least three, if not four, or possibly even five picks, which Miami simply does not have. This is the fair-market value for stars established by the Knicks' trade for Mikal Bridges. This is why they will have to get creative and trade players rather than picks. A couple of second-rounders can be sent out as sweeteners, but that won’t really move the needle too much.
They should keep Kel'el Ware and trade Thomas Bryant to give up fewer total assets
Bryant is a better player than Ware, which means that if Riley is going to include him in the transaction, will be able to reduce the overall cost of the package in terms of additional compensation.
Bryant is a good player and the Heat would certainly love to keep him around, but he isn’t good enough to justify holding up the deal for a True superstar such as Giannis.
Without, including Bryant, it will be much more difficult for Miami’s front office to put together a deal that will attract the interest of Milwaukee, especially when other franchises have plenty of surplus premium Jeff capital that they can send to Milwaukee.
The perfect deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo
While it is easy to say that the Heat should trade for Antetokounmpo by giving up Adebayo, Bryant, and others, this type of deal is not so easy.
First off, Adebayo can't be traded during the 2024-25 season after he just signed a max contract extension with Miami in the offseason. In order for the Heat to even think about trading him for Antetokounmpo, this would need to be a deal that takes place next offseason. There is also the problem of the Heat being above the first tax apron and having to match salaries, a hard ask when Giannis is making $48.7 million this year.
If Miami is serious about trading for Antetokounmpo, then some type of proposal revolving around Adebayo, Jaquez Jr., and likely Ware would need to take place in the summer. Not to mention, the rest of this team's tradeable first-round picks would need to be on their way to Milwaukee.