The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road to take on the Boston Red Sox Thursday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Phillies-Red Sox prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.

Phillies-Red Sox Projected Starters 

Aaron Nola vs. Tanner Houck

Aaron Nola (8-2) with a 2.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 84.1 innings pitched, 76K/22BB, .195 oBA

Last Start: vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Win, 7 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts

2024 Road Splits: 5 starts, 4-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 34.2 innings pitched, 30K/10BB, .174 oBA

Tanner Houck (6-5) with a 1.91 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 85 innings pitched, 84K/15BB, .200 oBA

Last Start: at Chicago White Sox: Win, 7 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts

2024 Home Splits: 7 starts, 2-3, 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 47 innings pitched, 44K/7BB, .220 oBA

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Phillies-Red Sox Odds

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline: -112

Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline: -104

Over: 8.5 (-106)

Under: 8.5 (-114)

How to Watch Phillies vs. Red Sox

Time: 7:10 ET/4:10 PT


Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win

Aaron Nola is a having a Cy Young season. As mentioned, he has an ERA under 3.00 and his WHIP is under 1.00. Nola does a great job getting opponents to chase. His chase percentage is over 30 percent, which is in the 85th percentile in the MLB. If Nola can find a way to get the Red Sox to chase pitches, and continue to pitch as he has been, the Phillies will win this game.

The Red Sox have the eighth-highest chase percentage in the MLB. Along with that, the Red Sox sixth-highest whiff percentage, and ninth-lowest chase contact percentage. The Red Sox also have the third-lowest zone contact percentage, so they have a big tendency to swing and miss. Nola should be able to have a lot of success against this Red Sox lineup and shut them down. If he does that, the Phillies will have no problem winning this game on the road.

Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win

Tanner Houck's record is not reflective of the way he has pitched this season. Houck has a sub-2.00 ERA, and he has had five straight starts of less than 3 earned runs allowed. This is something he needs to do against a very solid lineup. Houck gets his success because he has a high chase percentage, low walk percentage, and low barrel percentage. If Houck can continue shutting teams down, he will lead the Red Sox to a win in this game.

The Red Sox do have that tendency to swing and miss, but they are very good when they make contact. Boston has the 11th-most home runs, seventh-best slugging percentage, and the seventh-most doubles. They have the ability to do some damage at the plate, and they will have to in this game. If the Red Sox can get hot with their bats, they will be able to win this game.

Final Phillies-Red Sox Prediction & Pick

This pitching matchup is very good and should result in a low-scoring game. For that reason, the under would be a great bet in this one. However, I will be focusing on a winner. I love what Nola has done, and the Phillies are the overall better team. I will take the Phillies to win this game on Thursday night.

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Final Phillies-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+140)