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An NL East battle is on tap today as the Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Phillies just split the weekend series with the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. With a record of 6-4 in their last ten games, the team is starting to rebound from their horrid stretch of five straight losses. The team has been streaky this year, along with that five-game losing streak, the Phillies also have a six-game losing streak, but also a five and a four-game winning streak. At 25-28 on the season, the Phillies are currently sitting in fourth in the division, but also in striking distance of a wild card spot.
The Mets have lost their last two games and lost two of three to the Rockies. In the final two games, they gave up 21 runs combined. The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten as well and sit at 27-27 on the year, which places them third in the NL East. Pitching woes were the concern for the weekend, as been consistent. While going 6-4 in their last ten games, they have given up 52 runs in the process.
Here are the Phillies-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-170)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Mets
TV: TBS/NBCSP/SNY
Stream: TBS App/MLB.TV
Time: 7:10 PM ET/ 4:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies need to score more runs based on their batting average. They are 11th in the majors this year in batting average while sitting 16th in on base percentage and 13th in slugging. Those are all areas that should produce good runs, but they sit tied for 22nd in runs scored this year. The major issue for that has been hitting with runners in scoring position. They are hitting just .231 with runners in scoring position this year, which is 27th in the majors. In particular, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner have been terrible in those situations this year.
Turner is the best of the group, hitting .184 with eight runs batted in. He has been hitting better as of late though. In his last five games, he has batted in four runs and hit a home run. Behind him is Kyle Schwarber, who is hitting .159 with runners in scoring position. He is more likely to strike out than get a hit, striking out 16 times in RISP situations. Like Turner, he is picking up a little as well. He just hit his 13th home run of the season and has driven in three runs in the last five games. Finally, there is Bryce Harper. Harper is hitting just .105 with runners in scoring position. He has just two hits, both doubles, in 13 attempts this year. He is still recovering from injury though and has hit .306 since returning to the lineup. So his numbers may be due to a limited sample size more than anything.
The Phillies will send out Ranger Suarez for this game. His three starts so far this year have not been stellar. He has given up three or more runs in each of them while having a WHIP of 2.00 so far this year. He has only made it through five innings once this year and has been serving up easy-to-hit pitches the entire season.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Met's offense will be looking to take advantage of a weaker pitcher on the other side of them. Brandon Nimmo has been hot as of late. In the past week, he is hitting .417 with four extra-base hits and driving in two runs. Nimmo is having a great season, as he is hitting .306 on the year, which is good for tenth in the majors. While the on-base percentage is down slightly this month, he is still near .400 for the year and scored 16 times on the month.
While Nimmo is consistently hitting, Pete Alonso is continuing to hit home runs. He has twenty on the year now, which ranks him first in the majors. His 46 RBIs rank him third. While only hitting .227 on the month, Alonso has sent ten balls over the fence and grabbed 21 runs batted in. Last time out, he had a couple of near misses as well, hitting a long double and triple. While the contact numbers are down, Alonso can change the complexion of a game with any swing, and could easily do so again today.
The Mets will send Kodai Senga to the mount this evening. He is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA on the season. He has been a mixed back of production this year. Senga has four starts on the year where has given up five or more hits, three or more runs, and pitched five or fewer innings. He has has four starts this year where he has pitched over five innings and given up one or fewer runs. Depending on which Senga comes out, it could either be a great game for the Mets, or another loss.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Neither team has been dominant this year. The Mets have been disappointing, and the Phillies have only shown short flashes of being a quality team. This one comes down to the two pitchers on the mound. Senga is a 50/50 shot to have a great outing, but even some of his poorer ones are not that bad. Suarez has been dreadful this year. With the Phillies struggling to score, take Senga and the Mets.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (+150)