The first set of 2023's College Football Playoff rankings dropped last Tuesday, ahead of Week 10's games. Out of the committee's first rankings, just one top 10 team, Oklahoma, lost, and a couple others survived some real scares. So how does that shake up this week's top 10, which will be revealed Tuesday night? These are our predictions for the Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings.

 

1. Georgia (9-0)

Previous ranking: 2

This week: W 31-20 vs. No. 12 Missouri

The Bulldogs hosted Mizzou on Saturday, and the Tigers put up a good fight, heading into the half tied at 10-10. However, Georgia took over in the second half, winning the third quarter 14-3 and ultimately the game. The Bulldogs proved to be deeper and more physical, wearing down the Tigers over 60 minutes and winning with the style they've dominated with for the last two years.

This Georgia team hasn't looked as impressive this year it has throughout this dynasty. Yet, the Bulldogs haven't lost in nearly two calendar years and still have the most talented roster in the sport. What Georgia was missing this year from the committee's evaluation was a win over a quality opponent. They now have that, and given Ohio State's shaky offensive performance on Saturday, they'll likely move up to the top spot.

 

2. Michigan (9-0)

Previous ranking: 3

This week: W 41-13 vs. Purdue 

Michigan has easily been college football's most dominant team in 2023. Now, the Wolverines also haven't played any real competition, but they have absolutely handled everyone on their schedule. Yes, Ohio State has wins over Notre Dame and Penn State, but the Buckeyes are just not as consistent as Michigan. More on Ohio State in a minute.

Michigan has won every game by a minimum of 24 points. The defense allows less than seven points per game and has only allowed an opponent to reach double digits twice. Purdue scored a touchdown in the closing seconds of a blowout loss in Week 10 to reach a mighty 13 points. Put aside the emotion coming from Michigan's current sign-stealing scandal, and see that the Wolverines have played like the best team in the country all year. It shouldn't surprise anyone if they are No. 1 this week, but Georgia likely gets a slight edge from strength of schedule.

 

3. Ohio State (9-0)

Previous ranking: 1

This week: W 35-16 @ Rutgers

Uh, did anybody actually watch Ohio State this weekend? The Buckeyes trailed Rutgers 9-7 at halftime. Ohio State has the best set of offensive weapons in college football. Yet Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, two future first-round wide receivers, combined for eight catches and 54 yards. With a top-tier offensive line, elite receivers and elite running backs, the Buckeyes should not struggle to put points on the board. But they put up seven points in a half against Rutgers, needed a 93-yard pick-six to rally the troops, and still ended up in a one-possession game in the fourth quarter.

In the span of a year, Ohio State has shifted from the most explosive offense in the country to a team that relies heavily on its defense. That's not necessarily the worst thing, but the Buckeyes have a weakness at quarterback. Still, Ohio State has two very strong wins on its resume, and that defense is legitimately scary. 2023's edition of “The Game” projects to be a banger.

 

4. Washington (9-0)

Previous ranking: 5

This week: W 52-42 @ No. 20 USC

USC has admittedly been struggling as of late. But it's still impressive for Washington to go on the road and defeat the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and an elite offense in a shootout. Michael Penix Jr. played well, but the real story was a massive outburst from RB Dillon Johnson, who amassed 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns against the Trojans' porous run defense. The Huskies will still have to figure out how to get stops, but giving up 42 points to USC is no egregious error.

As for the Huskies' case to jump Florida State, which occupied this spot a week ago, it's about strength of schedule. The Pac-12 is definitively better than the ACC this year, and although Washington had a couple of messy wins over Stanford and Arizona State, it's not like Florida State hasn't had suspect games either. FSU's best win is over LSU, which now has three losses. Washington beat Oregon, who was the committee's favorite one-loss team last week, and now USC. As the only undefeated Pac-12 team, the Huskies deserve a tentative spot in the playoff picture.

 

5. Florida State (9-0)

Previous ranking: 4

This week: W 24-7 @ Pitt

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Florida State is the only other undefeated Power 5 team. I just outlined why I like Washington to jump Florida State, and the other three are pretty much head-and-shoulders above the Seminoles until one of those three teams loses or Florida State does something seriously impressive. Unfortunately, Florida State doesn't have much of a chance to prove that, but one of the undefeated Big Ten teams will lose to the other in a few weeks. If the Seminoles remain undefeated, they guarantee themselves a spot in the playoff.

 

6. Oregon (8-1) 

Previous ranking: 6

This week: W 63-19 vs. Cal

The Ducks continue to impress in all areas of the game after dropping a toss-up contest against Washington a few weeks ago. They obliterated Utah in Salt Lake City last week, and they hung 63 on Cal this week. Oregon very well might be better than Washington, and I would probably favor the Ducks in power rankings, but the games have to matter. The Huskies went toe-to-toe with the Ducks and came out on top, they're still undefeated, and they deserve a higher ranking.

As for the rest of the field, Oregon has been the most consistent and most dominant of the other one-loss teams. The Ducks have depth, they play real defense, the offense has moved the ball on every opponent, and they have the most experienced quarterback in college football. Dan Lanning is doing a hell of a job at Oregon, and this is a real national championship contender.

 

7. Texas (8-1)

Previous ranking: 7

This week: W 33-30 vs. No. 23 Kansas State

Texas survived a close one against Kansas State on Saturday. In fact, the Longhorns probably should have lost that game, after giving the ball away three times and only mustering a field goal in overtime. But they found a way to win, and 8-1 is what matters most at the end of the day. Sure, this wasn't a great showing for Texas, but who is going to jump them? Alabama picked up a really solid win over LSU, but again, the games have to matter. Texas beat Alabama this year, so as long as they have the same record, Texas has to be ranked above them. Otherwise the system is broken.

Let's also not forget the Longhorns were without their starting quarterback, and the fact that Kansas State is actually a very legit football team.

 

8. Alabama (8-1)

Previous ranking: 8

This week: W 42-28 vs. No. 14 LSU

Alabama has only gotten better and better since losing to Texas and looking uncharacteristically flat against USF in Week 3. Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide are figuring out their identity, and improving every week. That's a scary sign for the rest of the SEC and college football. However, they just can't be any higher than this right now.

Alabama's path to the playoff is simple: win out. It doesn't matter if they aren't in the top-four in Week 11. If Alabama goes 11-1, they'll likely play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Win that game, emerge as a one-loss SEC champion, and book the flight to the playoff game.

 

9. Penn State (8-1) 

Previous ranking: 11

This week: W 51-15 @ Maryland

I was debating Penn State and Ole Miss here, but you know what? Penn State plays Michigan this week with serious Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff implications on the line. That game probably sells itself a little more if it looks a little bit better on paper. Or, you know, on the Fox Big Noon Kickoff advertisements.

Ole Miss also plays Georgia this week, but Ole Miss' only hope to get to the SEC Championship loses to Kentucky, Chattanooga or Auburn in the next three weeks. Feels a little less likely.

 

10. Ole Miss (8-1)

Previous ranking: 10

This week: W 38-35 vs. Texas A&M 

Who else to round out the top 10? Louisville is the only other team with a case to take this spot, but Ole Miss has a better win (LSU) and a better loss (Alabama) than those markers that define Louisville's resume. If Ole Miss does somehow take down Georgia this week, it rocks the college football landscape.