The 2018 NBA free agency class will be one of the most talented in a while, featuring names such as LeBron James, Paul George, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and DeMarcus Cousins. But there are some other players that will have strong markets and will be attractive pieces for teams to build around. One such player is the Los Angeles Lakers' Julius Randle.
The Lakers selected Randle seventh overall in the 2014 Draft after he played one season at Kentucky, during which he averaged 15 points and ten rebounds per game. In the first game of his rookie season, Randle broke his right tibia and missed the rest of the year. Now, in 2017-2018, he is making himself a lot of money with his performance.
Randle is a classic power forward, and at 6'9″ 250 lbs, he has the prototypical size for the position. Over his first two seasons, he played like a normal power forward, staying in the paint and posting up. But this year, Randle has slimmed down a bit, and his play has reflected that.
Randle is noticeably quicker, and that has allowed to keep up with more athletic big men defensively, as well as attacking the larger and slower centers that he matches up with offensively. He is very good in pick-and-roll situations, as his finishing ability is fantastic for a big man. He is able to switch onto guards near the perimeter and hold his own.
Randle's improvement is also visible statistically. In each year he has been in the league, his numbers have been better.
2015-2016: 28.2 minutes per game, 11.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 43% shooting
2016-2017: 28.8 minutes per game, 13.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 49% shooting
2017-2018: 25.6 minutes per game, 15.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 57% shooting
He has become an extremely smart and efficient player, even in limited playing time. He has been starting at PF since Larry Nance Jr. was traded at the deadline in early February, and since then has excelled. As The Big Lead's Ryan Phillips states:
In 10 February games, Randle averaged 19.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 31.9 minutes, while shooting 58.9 percent from the field. So far in six March games, he’s averaging 22.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 33.0 minutes, while shooting 59.0 percent from the field.
Randle's play has helped the Lakers go 7-2 since the All-Star break, and while a playoff berth is unlikely, Los Angeles is a much-improved team over last year. This begs the question: where does Randle fit in the Lakers' future plans, and what is the best situation for him?
Randle is a throwback power forward and doesn't have the shooting range to be a three-point threat. He's a career 27% shooter from deep and has only attempted 140 total shots. This will hurt his market and future effectiveness in a league where teams are always in search of the next Kevin Love or Draymond Green.
In the previous decade, Randle would have the potential to develop into a dominant max-contract type player, but he won't get that chance now. However, there's a lot of room for Randle to argue his value beyond current contract outlooks.
Rumors have been circling for months that the Lakers intend to offer both LeBron James and Paul George max deals to play with Lonzo Ball in California. This is unrealistic, but Los Angeles could create the necessary cap space for two max contracts.
In order to do that, they would most likely need to denounce all of their pending free agents and figure out a way to get Luol Deng's albatross of a contract off of their books. If they really gutted their team, the Lakers could bring back Randle and still sign two max players, but that would not be the smart move.
If Los Angeles is absolutely sure that they can land both James and George, then they should let Randle walk, because having two proven elite superstars is better than one 23-year-old with potential. But again, this is not realistic.
The better option is to retain Randle and try to get one star, then try for another in the 2019 offseason. Having a power forward who can both defend and score at a high level inside will be attractive and beneficial to any superstar.
If the Lakers and Randle end up parting ways, he will be one of the top candidates for a team to form their core around. His durability gives him the advantage over someone like Jabari Parker, and he will most likely be cheaper. A team like the Dallas Mavericks – young and in need of both proven talent and potential – could be an option.
This is not a rumor, just a guess after looking at the summer landscape – wouldn't be surprised if the Mavericks offer Julius Randle a contract starting at or on average – $18 mil per year
— Eric Pincus (@EricPincus) February 26, 2018
Other teams like the Chicago Bulls, Phoenix Suns, or Utah Jazz are possible landing spots. Young teams that are either in the process of rebuilding or in the transition phase between rebuilding and the beginning stages of competing.
Randle's versatility and ability to play as a small-ball make him the perfect fit for a team such as the Cleveland Cavaliers or Golden State Warriors, but neither of those teams has the cap space or assets needed to acquire him.
In a year with so much top-end talent, Julius Randle's free agency situation could go under the radar, but his decision will have a lasting impact on the NBA and fans could be seeing him leading a team in the playoffs very soon.
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