The Boston Red Sox have had an interesting offseason to this point. Public opinion of the team was at an all-time low after Xander Bogaerts departed in free agency to sign a massive 11-year, $280 million deal with the San Diego Padres, and the front office has been scrambling to fix things ever since.
For the most part, the Sox have been unsuccessful, although they did manage to finally sign Rafael Devers to a long-term extension, which will help keep fans happy for the time being. But it's clear that Boston has a lot of work to do when it comes to building a World Series contender around Devers, or else the deal will end up being for nothing.
Boston has managed to make some other notable moves in free agency this offseason, but it doesn't look like any of those deals are going to immediately make them a playoff contender. Many of their moves have to be considered big risks, but the biggest risk may be the signing of this key outfielder who now has to produce immediately in order for the Red Sox to reach their ceiling in 2023 and beyond.
Red Sox riskiest offseason move: Signing Masataka Yoshida
While the Red Sox were still trying to convince Bogaerts to stay in town, they managed to land arguably the top overseas free agent on the market in Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Yoshida had been mashing in the Nippon Professional Baseball league for the past few years, and finally decided to make the jump to the MLB this offseason by joining the Red Sox.
Determining whether a player can make the jump from one league to another is a very difficult task, but based on his production in Japan, it looks like Yoshida could be a strong player for the Sox. Yoshida put together another good season of hitting last season with the Orix Buffaloes (.335 BA, 21 HR, 88 RBI, 1.008 OPS) and could be precisely what Boston needs in their lineup.
Regression should always be expected though when signing overseas players, as the MLB is the most difficult baseball league in the world. We saw just last season how Seiya Suzuki, who was the prized Japanese free agent last offseason, didn't have the greatest debut season with the Chicago Cubs despite all the hype surrounding him. Who's to say the same thing won't happen to Yoshida?
Yoshida is a solid contact hitter who consistently hit above .300 in Japan, while also hitting 20-30 home runs a season as well. Again, these are good numbers; the question is whether or not they will translate to the MLB.
The other issue is the money associated with the deal for Yoshida. Boston signed Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million contract, while also paying the posting fee of $15 million, which essentially makes it a five-year, $105 million deal. Right from the get go, this deal was considered a wild overpay, despite the Red Sox front office insisting that if they didn't give Yoshida this money, another team would have.
Signing overseas players is always going to be a risk. Sometimes they pan out and become stars like Shohei Ohtani; other times, they fail to make any sort of contribution in the majors, as the Red Sox know far too well after handing out big money for Rusney Castillo, only to see him play just 99 games with the major league team.
Boston has been burned by these types of deals before, and they are taking a huge risk by overpaying for Yoshida. Not only has he never played in the MLB, but his traits may not necessarily translate well to the MLB. He's only 5'8, 176 pounds, and while his sweet left-handed swing is a good fit for Fenway Park, will pitchers be able to figure him out quickly and make him a nonfactor?
Typically that wouldn't be a major issue, but the Red Sox paid over $100 million for a guy who is an unproven MLB player. Sure, he has a track record of success in Japan, but generally speaking, there isn't much correlation as to whether or not that will lead to success in the majors. There are success stories and failures that will keep teams wary, but apparently not wary enough for the Sox to dish out $100 million for Yoshida.
Boston will need a lot to go their way in order for this deal to not go down as the overpay it appears to be right now. The Red Sox are paying Yoshida to produce like he did in Japan, and anything less than that will make this deal go down as a loss. It's a huge risk, and for a front office looking to buy goodwill with its fanbase, they are going to be praying that Yoshida can come in and immediately produce for Boston. Otherwise, they may end up getting run out of town.
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