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The Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins face in the fourth game of their series this afternoon. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Twins prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Red Sox saw their six-game win streak snapped yesterday. The Red Sox and Twins went back and forth for nine innings until Kyle Farmer hit a single in the tenth to drive home the winning run. In the series, Manager Alex Cora won his 400th career game, but the goal in Boston is not just winning games, it is winning a World Series. To do that, the Red Sox have to make the playoffs, and right now, they are in last place in the AL East. Sitting at 39-36, they are 12 games behind Tampa Bay, and two games behind the Astros for the last wild card spot.
Meanwhile, the Twins got just their second win in their last seven games yesterday. Still, the Twins are in first place in their division, a game up on the Cleveland Guardians. With a record of 37-38, they would be in third or worse in every other division in baseball, but in the AL Central, they sit first. The Twins are in a tight race for the division though, and will look to be aggressive at the trade deadline.
Here are the Red Sox-Twins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Twins Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-146)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 9 (-102)
Under: 9 (-120)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Twins
TV: NESN/BSNO
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 1:10 PM ET/ 10:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox have one of the best offensive units in all of baseball. They are the sixth-highest-scoring team in the majors while sitting third in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging percentage. The issue for the Red Sox has been their pitching. They have the 19th ranked team ERA, with the 18th best WHIP and 20th opponent batting average. The biggest issue has been the stasrting pitching, as their bullpen ERA is 3.81, which is good for 12th in the majors.
Justin Garza is the next pitcher for the Red Sox that will attempt to become a quality starter. Garza, an 8th round pick in 2015 for Cleveland made his major league deput in 2021 as a reliever for Cleveland. He has been in the minor leagues with the Angels and Red Sox farm system this year, before joining the big league club in May. He has 12 appearances as a releiver this year with an 0-1 record and a 3.46 ERA. Garza has not started a game since 2019 at High A ball in the Cleveland farm system.
The offense has been paced by a few key players. First is Masataka Yoshida, who is seventh in the majors in batting average this year. He is hitting .308 on the season but is a little lower this month hitting .286. He has eight RBIs this month, and three in the series so far with the Twins. Justin Turner has also been amazing as of late. He is hitting .342 this month, with 19 RBIS and five home runs this month. He has 10 RBIs in just the last five games, incluing two yesterday in the loss. Rounding out the hot bats is Alex Verdugo. He has four RBIs in the series with ten in the month. He is hitting .325 on the month with 13 runs scored.
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins have been a farily average team with an average offense. They are tied for 18th in the league in runs scored, while sitting 24th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging. Having offensive consistency has been a big issue for them. The Twins only have two players that have enough at-bats so far this year to qualify for the league leaderboard. One is Carlos Correa who has played in 65 of the team's 75 games. The other is Byron Buxton who has onyl played in 57. Only four players on the roster have even appeared in 60 or more games this year.
Royce Lewis did not appear in a game until May 29th but has been great since. He is hitting .308 since his season debut with three home runs and 11 RBIs. He has been solid in the series so far, going four for eight in the series with a double, a home run, and two runs scored. Joey Gallo is tied for the team lead in home runs, but since coming back to the line up on June 13th the power has been non-existent. He is batting just .167 with two doubles and one RBI. Gallo has been striking out a lot as of late as well. He has 11 strikeouts since coming back, including six in the series so far.
Pitching may have to be the hope for the Twins today and they send Joe Ryan to the mound. He is 7-4 on the season with a 3.30 ERA and a .97 WHIP. The last time out did not go well for Ryan. He went seven innings, giving up seven hits, six runs and two home runs. He has not had a win since May 24th, when he went five innings and gave up just one run.
Final Red Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Twin offense has been a struggle all year, and it has been more of the same as of late. They have scored 40 runs in their last ten games, good for an average of four a game. That is heavily bolstered by their series with the Brewers, in which they scored 11 runs in two games. They will be hopeful they can get some hits off a pitcher making their first career start today. Still, only scoring four runs a game will not be enough to have a huge lead on a team, especially one with so much offense like the Red Sox. The Red Sox are going to keep this one close, regardless of how their starter does today.
Final Red Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-146)