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Notre Dame capitalized on their third College Football Playoff appearance, defeating Indiana 27-17 in the first round. The Fighting Irish kicked off the new 12-team playoff format in style, hosting the very first home playoff game in a snowy South Bend. Now, they’re headed to a much more comfortable setting—at least weather-wise—as they travel to New Orleans to face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal.
Notre Dame will once again rely on starting quarterback Riley Leonard, who is looking for another standout performance. Against the Hoosiers, Leonard accounted for two of the Irish’s five scores, finding the end zone once through the air and once on the ground.
While Indiana technically boasted one of the nation’s top defenses (ranked No. 6 in scoring) heading into the first-round matchup, the challenge awaiting Leonard and the Irish on New Year’s Day will be far greater.
Historically, Georgia has been a daunting opponent for Notre Dame. The Irish are 0-3 all-time against the Bulldogs, with, ironically enough, their first meeting taking place in the 1980 Sugar Bowl. Their most recent encounters were in 2017 and 2019, both under Kirby Smart. Notably, all three games were tightly contested, decided by a combined 14 points.
Leonard will aim to break that streak in their fourth matchup. With that said, let’s dive into some bold predictions for Leonard as he and Notre Dame prepare to face Georgia in their Sugar Bowl showdown in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff.
Riley Leonard rushes for at least 40 yards and two touchdowns
If Notre Dame wants to gain the upper hand on Georgia, the blueprint might lie in the Bulldogs' regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. In that game, Georgia surrendered a season-high 260 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Yellow Jackets' potent ground attack.
Surprisingly, this marked the second consecutive game where Georgia allowed over 200 rushing yards. In their prior matchup against UMass—a team not typically known for overpowering opponents on the ground—the Bulldogs gave up 226 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
This trend highlights a potential vulnerability in Georgia’s defense. Even earlier in the season, Kentucky nearly upset the Bulldogs in their third game by rushing for 170 yards. The following week, Alabama and quarterback Jalen Milroe exposed this weakness further, rushing for 173 yards and three touchdowns, handing Georgia their first and only loss.
While Leonard may not be the same physical runner as Milroe, he’s more than capable of making plays with his legs. With 751 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the season, Leonard has been a critical part of Notre Dame’s offense. He will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in the Irish’s game plan for the Sugar Bowl.
Expect Leonard to contribute significantly on the ground, racking up at least 40 rushing yards and potentially finding the end zone twice with his legs.
Riley Leonard remains turnover free against Georgia in Sugar Bowl
Leonard has just six interceptions and one lost fumble this season. But now he's facing a Georgia defense that has created six takeaways in their last three games, three of which were against Texas in the SEC Championship Game.
Leonard does have two picks in his last two games but there's confidence this isn't something that will be consistent, even if it the SEC's best he'll be facing to start off the new year. It may not always be easy for Leonard in the Sugar Bowl matchup but Leonard will stay turnover free.
Riley Leonard and Notre Dame upset Georgia in he Sugar Bowl, move onto the semifinals
Everything about this matchup, from the history to the Southern setting of New Orleans, seems to favor Georgia. The Bulldogs are 3-0 all-time against Notre Dame and have proven to be a juggernaut under Kirby Smart. However, the uncertainty at quarterback for Georgia may tip the scales. With Carson Beck out for the season and Gunner Stockton stepping in, that inexperience at the most critical position could be a significant hurdle. Perhaps that’s why Georgia is favored by just 1.5 points, per FanDuel.
In situations like these, it’s often wise to lean toward the team with the more proven quarterback. That distinction clearly belongs to Leonard. Leonard’s dual-threat capabilities and leadership make him a steadying force for Notre Dame, especially compared to a first-time starter like Stockton.
Additionally, the Irish defense, led by coordinator Al Golden, has been exceptional this season, ranking fifth in the nation in takeaways. That spells trouble for a young quarterback making his debut in such a high-stakes game.
Notre Dame is likely to stick to the formula that has worked so well for them this season: a stout defense combined with their three-headed rushing attack, with Leonard making timely plays in the passing game. Expect Leonard and the Irish to wear down Georgia and take control of the game, securing their spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals with an upset.
