The Kansas City Royals are on the road to take on the Houston Astros on Friday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Astros prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Royals-Astros Projected Starters
Seth Lugo vs. Framber Valdez
Seth Lugo (14-8) with a 3.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 172 innings pitched, 146K/43BB, .232, oBA
Last Start: vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Loss, 5.1 innings, 11 hits, 6 runs, 5 earned, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 13 starts, 3.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 83.2 innings pitched, 76K/21BB, .224 oBA
Framber Valdez (13-6) with a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 143.1 innings pitched, 139K/44BB, .231 oBA
Last Start: at Baltimore Orioles: Loss, 5.2 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 11 starts, 2.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 70 innings pitched, 74K/18BB, .234 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Astros Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: +152
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: -180
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (112)
How to Watch Royals vs. Astros
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City, Space City Home Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Lugo has been a fantastic pickup for the Royals this season. He is throwing the ball exceptionally well, and the Royals have benefitted from it. He does already have a start against the Astros this year. In that game, Lugo went six innings, allowed just two runs on seven hits, and struck out two batters. He was able to lead the Royals to a win with that effort. The Royals need that type of start in this game, as well. If Lugo can have a quality start, the Astros will win this game.
Kansas City needs to hit the ball well in this game. The good news is they are much better against left-handed pitching. They are batting .265 with a .734 OPS against lefties this season. Along with that, the Royals record an extra base hit in one every 10 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. With Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals have a chance to do some real damage at the plate.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Framber Valdez started the season off rough, but he is pitching very well since the beginning of June. In that span, Valdez has made 15 starts, and he has a 2.73 ERA. He is 10-3 with 95.2 innings pitched, 101 strikeouts, and just 71 hits allowed in that time frame, as well. He has become one of the better pitchers in baseball since June, and that should continue in this game. If he can continue to pitch well, and especially well in August, the Astros will win this game.
Houston needs to take advantage of a struggling Seth Lugo. Lugo has good numbers, but that comes from the start of the season. Lately, he has not been so good. In August, Lugo has an ERA over 4.50, and opponents are batting .283 off him. Along with that, Lugo's walks are up. Lugo has been allowing a lot of baserunners this month, so the Astros just need to capitalize. If they can get some hits with runners in scoring position, the Astros will win this game.
Final Royals-Astros Prediction & Pick
This game comes down to Framber Valdez pitching better than Seth Lugo over the past few months. Houston has also been able to hit the ball well lately. For that reason, I am going to take the Astros to win this game straight up.
Final Royals-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros ML (-180)
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