The New Orleans Saints Week 14 matchup against the Carolina Panthers this week doesn't have as much riding on it as does the one featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. But it is still worthy of bold Saints Week 14 predictions.
The Falcons, at 6-6 on the season, lead the Bucs and the Saints by one game for supremacy in the NFC South as well as the right to host a playoff game. All of these teams are also well within the running for a Wild Cart spot. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are also Wild Card hopefuls at 6-6. Every game is of importance for both the NFC South contenders.
This especially goes for the Saints. They have to handle business against the 1-11 Panthers. It is a very winnable game, especially with the game being in New Orleans, but the previous matchup between these two teams was too close for their liking. The Saints won 20-17 with both scores coming on the ground by Tony Jones Jr.
New Orleans knows they'll have to play better to come away with another win. As they look to keep their NFC South hopes alive, these are our Saints Week 14 predictions.
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Saints' Alvin Kamara will have at least 150 total yards
Despite a suspension to begin the season and play not up to his standard a year ago, Alvin Kamara has been New Orleans' workhorse this season. Though his 3.82 yards per carry and 5.99 yards per target are not anything to write home about, Kamara does rank 20th in the NFL in yards per touch among qualified running backs, according to playerprofiler.com.
Kamara does rank eighth among running backs in yards per route run though. So whatever inefficiency he has dealt with on the ground he has more than made up for it through the air.
He shouldn't have as much problems with inefficiency this week against the Panthers. Carolina ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed defensively. Just last week, Buccaneers running back Rachaad White ran for 84 yards and added 22 on the ground on 23 total touches. Kamara averages 22 touches per game this season. With that workload and the matchup he has this week, he should be able to feast all game long.
Neither team reaches 20 points scored
The last game between these two was a 20-17 win for the Saints. Vegas is projecting something similar to an encore this time around. They have the line for this game set at 37.5 points with the Saints listed as 4.5-point favorites. That sounds about right, especially since both teams don't exactly boast high-flying offenses.
The Saints' offense ranks 21st in the NFL in EPA per play. The Panthers? They rank 29th in the NFL in that regard. Each team's quarterback play could be to blame for those results. Derek Carr ranks 19th in the NFL in EPA plus CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) per play. Bryce Young is all the way down at 28.
The fact that these teams have already met before without much points and are now meeting with both teams getting less than stellar play from their quarterback should signal that this will another slogfest. The Saints will take it as long as it ends in a win.
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