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A pivotal NFC South duel will be in the works this weekend as the New Orleans Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons. Join us for our NFL odds series where our Saints-Falcons prediction and pick will be revealed.
Despite being 5-5, New Orleans currently leads the NFC South and are hoping to give themselves a tremendous chance to put a stranglehold on the rest of the competition with a win over Atlanta on Sunday. Overall, the Saints have won two of their last three games and even though they came out on the short end of the stick in a 27-19 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the season is far from lost.
Also fresh off of a disheartening loss, the Falcons have been defeated in three consecutive games and are trending negatively even though they remain just one game out of first place. Nevertheless, Atlanta has happened to win three of their four games inside the confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium which could bode well for the Falcons.
Here are the Saints-Falcons NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Saints-Falcons Odds
New Orleans Saints: -1.5 (-115)
Atlanta Falcons: +1.5 (-105)
Over: 41.5 (-110)
Under: 41.5 (-110)
How to Watch Saints vs. Falcons Week 12
Time: 1:00 ET/10:00 PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial), NFL Sunday Ticket if out-of-market
Why The Saints Could Cover The Spread
All in all, the Saints are coming off a bye week, and the main thing that New Orleans needs to put an emphasis on is playing a far more balanced performance on both sides of the ball. Through the first ten games of the season, the Saints have not been able to get on the same page in terms of playing a complete game both offensively and defensively. To start, it was a suffocating defense that paved the way to go 3-2 overall, but now, New Orleans is surrendering far too many points defensively while the offense is starting to pick up the slack. Simply put, this is clearly not a recipe for success, and stringing together some highlight moments in all aspects of the game could very well lead to a spread-covering road victory.
In good news, QB Derek Carr did happen to pass protocol during the bye week and is on track to return to the starting lineup. When watching game tape, Carr has had plenty of ups and downs in his first season as a Saint, but he still provides a solid veteran presence that this franchise has lacked since Drew Brees decided to hang up the cleats back in 2021. Even more so, this divisional matchup for Carr and this Saints passing attack could be in for a big day against a Falcons secondary who is giving up large chunk plays through the airing and often struggles against the pass. Indeed, don't be surprised if Carr connects with his wideouts on some dynamic plays down the field to cover the -1.5-point spread as favorites.
Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread
Things haven't been as smooth sailing as the Falcons would have liked to begin the 2023 regular season. However, all they need is a chance and that's exactly what they have heading into Week 12 of the NFL season.
The first order of business that the Falcons need to handle is making QB Desmond Ridder as comfortable as possible when delivering strikes from within the pocket. Throughout his first couple of seasons in the NFL, Ridder has possessed a dual-threat ability that makes it hard for opposing defenses to account for him, but he often isn't as accurate as he needs to be with his right arm. Obviously enough, the Falcons love to run the football, but implanting a healthy dosage of play-action passes will be needed to keep the Saints on their heels defensively.
Most importantly, can this defense be trusted when they are needed the most? Statistically, this is a unit that has actually shown vast improvement in holding offenses in check as they rank seventh in all of football with only surrendering 308.8 yards per contest. In recent years, Atlanta's defense hasn't been known to be a major factor in terms of winning games, but that narrative has quickly changed. for the best Specifically, the glaring issue for this Falcons defense has been that they don't generate a whole lot of takeaways which has hurt them in the turnover department. At the moment, Atlanta has only forced ten turnovers and will need to win the turnover margin if they are going to make some noise in this one.
Final Saints-Falcons Prediction & Pick
It doesn't get much more important than this! With this contest serving as the first meeting of two between the two division rivals, expect the Saints to be the more opportunistic team by the time the clock hits triple zeroes in the fourth quarter.
Final Saints-Falcons Prediction & Pick: Saints -1.5 (-115)
