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Last year, the San Antonio Spurs held the second-worst record in the league and finished last in the Western Conference. It wasn't all for nothing, however, as the Spurs managed to capture the first overall pick in the NBA Draft and land generational talent Victor Wembanyama. Their expectations have risen for this upcoming 2023-24 NBA season – will the Spurs take a step in the right direction? Check out our NBA odds series for our San Antonio Spurs Over/Under Win Total prediction.
The 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs finished with a record of 22-60 and were unable to meet their over/under win total from last year. While their season looked promising during a 5-2 start, the Spurs quickly fell into lengthy losing streaks and failed to have their young core healthy throughout the season. It was similar to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs' 1994 season when they managed only 20 wins and landed legend Tim Duncan in the draft. With Popovich entering the twilight of his career, he'll have another franchise big man in Victor Wembanyama to build a base around for the next generation in San Antonio.
Here are the Spurs NBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: San Antonio Spurs Over/Under Win Total
Over 28.5 wins: +104
Under 28.5 wins: -128
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Why The Spurs Will Win 29 Games
San Antonio will be returning key players to their young core in guard Jeremy Sochan and forward Keldon Johnson. Sochan often took runs at the four-spot for the Spurs with Tre Jones running point guard. However, with the addition of Wembanyama, it appears that Jeremy Sochan will take over point guard duties and look to distribute the ball, something he's show great glimpses of thus far. Tre Jones will prove to be a great asset off the bench as he'll be able to add depth and skill to their point guard position. With Zach Collins manning the middle, Wembanyama will have a great teammate to learn from and anchor to help him hold down the middle. Keldon Johnson will look to take another leap in his scoring and lead this team on the offensive side of the ball.
This first year for Victor Wembanyama will be a big experiment in getting acclimated to NBA-style of play. He's still only a kid and growing into his frame, so there will definitely be a steep learning curve once he starts banging down low with NBA veterans. Still, Wembanyama has shown glimmers of dominance through his action during the Preseason – if San Antonio can manage to keep him healthy, he'll be an instant difference maker on both sides of the basketball. The attention he draws will allow for players like Sochan and Johnson to develop their games while playing complementary basketball. This team already has a ton of chemistry with how young they are and it'll be fun to see them grow as a cohesive unit this year.
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Why The Spurs Will Not Win 29 Games
While the Spurs were a fun basketball team to watch when playing well, they were hardly competitive in many of their games and didn't give fans much to cheer about. After enduring a 22 win season, the ultimate consolation for the Spurs was landing the first pick. However, it can't be assumed that Wembanyama can carry this team on his shoulders as a 19-year old Rookie. While he may help them slightly improve on their record from last year, it's hard to imagine Wembanyama coming in and immediately becoming a game-changer for the Spurs. It took both Giannia Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic several years to fully grow into their frames and see this type of dominance from the big man position. Big men in the NBA typically take a few more years to develop than let's say, a Ja Morant or Derrick Rose type of player. While Wembanyama will certainly help them win some games, the Spurs organization will be more focused on choosing the right path to develop his once-in-a-lifetime potential.
Last year, the Spurs ranked near the bottom of the NBA in both defensive and offensive rating, while also ranking low on turnover percentage. Unlike a typical Popovich-coached team, this group is still getting their legs under them and they lack veteran presence like many Spurs teams in the past. With young guys having to step up as leaders, mistakes are bound to happen and the Spurs felt the wear on their tires last year. Both Sochan and Johnson had nagging injuries all season and failed to see a substantial amount of time of the floor together. They'll need to focus on being healthy and taking care of the basketball this year if they want any chance of hitting their total.
Final San Antonio Spurs Over/Under Win Total Prediction
With Jeremy Sochan moving to point guard on the depth chart and the much-anticipated debut of Victor Wembanyama, this Spurs team may be the most interesting worst-team we've ever seen. They boast a very young and talented lineup and the addition of Wembanyama instantly makes this squad a must-watch team. With the amount of injuries that piled up for them last year, it's hard to gauge whether they could have been competitive in many of their games with a healthy squad.
I think that if Jeremy Sochan can take a leap forward and focus on distributing the ball for this Spurs team, they should find themselves in a great position to mount a sustainable offense throughout the year. Keldon Johnson looked like a high caliber scorer at times last year and his potential for immediate success could be the highest on the team. Expect him and Wembanyama to pose problems for defenses if they're both on their games.
Overall, this team is going to be very fun to tune-in to and watch throughout the season. Assuming they can stay healthy, I expect this San Antonio Spurs team to win 30 games and take a massive leap forward with their young stars. Expect Victor Wembanyama to show off new wrinkles to his game with each passing contest as the Spurs are once again must-see TV.
Final San Antonio Spurs Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 28.5 Wins (+104)
