The Atlanta Braves will take on the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round, beginning Tuesday at 8:30pm est. Both teams enter the postseason red hot, earning the top two National League Wild Card berths. With plenty of storylines to delve into, we offer our Padres-Braves Wild Card series predictions.
The Padres finished an incredible 43-20 since returning from the All-Star break, good for the best record in baseball during that stretch. San Diego’s epic effort during the postseason push was impressive and makes them the favorite to beat the Braves in the best of three Wild Card series.
ROY Frontrunner Jackson Merrill is clutch
San Diego was bolstered by the incredible performance of Rookie of the Year betting favorite Jackson Merrill. Merrill miraculously overtook Pittsburgh Pirates pitching phenom Paul Skenes, who appeared to be a lock for the award after an unreal first half of the season. But Merrill is clutch. He became the first player 21 or younger with multiple homer games that included a tying or go-ahead dinger in the 9th or later, per Sarah Langs on X.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is ready for a postseason peak
After missing more than two months of the season with a right thigh ailment, Tatis Jr. returned to the Padres lineup in time to help the team with its playoff push. San Diego’s right fielder is positioned to give this team a boost in the postseason, where he has thrived in limited action. Tatis Jr. slashed .318/.444/.682 in six playoff contests during the 2020 season.
Manny Machado remains a reliable contributor
Machado turned in another solid season for the Padres. San Diego’s third baseman delivered 30 doubles, 29 home runs, 105 RBI and 77 runs scored for the Padres. The two-time Gold Glove winner produced 3.2 bWAR in 152 games while playing his typical solid defense for the team. Jurickson Profar was also a major contributor for this Padres squad, delivering the best offensive season of his career.
While the Padres finished with the best second-half record in MLB, the Braves held their own. Atlanta went 36-31 since returning from the Midsummer Classic, which was the ninth-best record in baseball.
Unfortunately, the Braves are running into a buzzsaw in the Wild Card round, drawing the Padres in the best of three series.
Chris Sale’s injury a major blow for Braves
Atlanta ace Chris Sale was dealt some brutal injury news just before the postseason. The eight-time All-Star was scratched from the team’s must-win final game of the season. And now he’s not expected to pitch in the NL Wild Card series against the Padres.
The absence of Sale in a short series is a tremendous blow to Atlanta. The Braves will turn to rookie hurler AJ Smith-Shawver as their game one starter. Smith-Shawver didn't make the opening day roster and has made one start this season. This will be his first career postseason start. Given Smith-Shawver’s inexperience, the Padres have a significant advantage at home.
Marcell Ozuna is as steady as they come
The Braves lost reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season in May due to a torn ACL in his left knee. A big reason for the team’s success in 2024 is due to DH Marcell Ozuna, who delivered another superb season in Atlanta. Ozuna had 31 doubles, 39 home runs, 104 RBI and 96 runs scored with a .925 OPS and an OPS+ of 154. The 12-year veteran played all 162 games for the Braves in 2024 and produced a 4.3 bWAR for the club. He was narrowly bested by the Padres' Luis Arraez for the batting title.
Unfortunately, without Sale available and with the Padres boasting a ridiculous lineup of thumpers, the Braves have an uphill battle in the Wild Card round. Still, this is just the third time in the last five years the Padres have reached the playoffs. So Atlanta certainly has the postseason experience advantage. We shall see which team comes out on top in what’s sure to be an action-packed series.
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