The first Sweet Sixteen game of the East Region tips off as San Diego State faces UConn. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a San Diego State-UConn prediction, pick, and how to watch.
San Diego State had a solid first weekend of the NCAA tournament. They opened the tournament against UAB, the 12 seed in the East Region. San Diego State had a six-point lead going into the half against UAB. UAB would close the game, and have the lead with six minutes left in the game. San Diego State would take the lead, and it would remain tight throughout. The Aztecs would come away with a 69-65 victory, to move to round two. The next round would be against the 13th-seeded Yale. San Diego State dominated the game. They built a 45-21 lead going into the half and would continue to build the lead in the second half. San Diego State would go on to win 85-57.
Meanwhile, UConn dominated the first weekend of the tournament. They started with the 16-seed Stetson. After leading at half 52-19, UConn would hold onto the large lead through the second half. UConn won 91-52 over Stetson. In the second round, they would face Northwestern. Once again, UConn built an impressive first-half lead. They lead Northwestern 40-18 at the halfway mark of the game. While Northwestern would have a better second half, they would not be able to make a comeback, with UConn winning 75-58.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: San Diego State-UConn Odds
San Diego State: +10.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +480
UConn: -10.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -690
Over: 135.5 (-115)
Under: 135.5 (-105)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 7:39 PM ET/ 4:39 PM PT
TV: TBS/truTV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread/Win
San Diego State comes into the game sitting 17th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 53rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency this year, but ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency this year. They are 123rd in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 206th in the nation in effective field goal position this year. Jaedon LeDee leads the way in points per game this year. He comes in with 21.5 points per game this year while shooting 56.4 percent from the field this year. Joining him in scoring well is Reese Waters and Micah Parrish. Waters comes into the game with 9.8 points per game this year, while Parrish comes in with 9.4 points per game. Further, Darrion Trammell comes in leading the team in assists, with 3.3 per game, while he adds 7.9 points per game.
San Diego State comes into the game 59th in the nation in total rebounds per game this year. They are 62nd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, but sit 143rd in defensive rebounding rate this year. Jaedon LeDee leads the way in rebounds this year. He comes in with 8.4 rebounds per game this year. Further, 115 of his 294 rebounds come in on the offensive glass this year. Jay Pal comes in with 4.2 rebounds per game, while Micah Parrish also adds 4.1 rebounds a game.
San Diego State is 33rd in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 26th in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage. LaMont Butler leads the way here, and he has 1.5 steals per game this year. Further, Micah Parrish and Jaedon LeDee both have over a steal per game this year.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn comes in ranked first in KenPom's adjusted ratings this year. They are second in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 17th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UConn has been a great shooting team inside the arc, sitting fourth in the nation in two-point field goal percentage this year.
UConn has been led by the combination of Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton this year. Newton leads the way this year with 15.3 points per game this year. He is shooting the worst of the group though, shooing just 42.0 percent. He does lead the team in assists, coming in with 6.2 per game. Spencer comes in with 14.4 points per game this year. He is shooting 48.8 percent from the field. Finally, Karaban has 13.7 points per game this year, while also shooting 50.1 percent from the field.
UConn sits 35th in the nation in rebounds per game, but they are 14th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage while sitting 36th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage this year. This is led by Donovan Cligan, who comes in with 7.4 rebounds per game. He also has over two offensive rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile., Tristen Newton comes in with 6.8 rebounds per game this year, while being great on the defensive end. UConn also has three other players with over four rebounds per game this year.
On defense, UConn is eighth in the nation in points against per game this year. They sit third in opponent effective field goal percentage this year as well. UConn forces people into the middle, where one of their big men often causes difficult shots this year. They are ninth in the nation in blocks this year and sixth in block percentage this year. Clingan leads the way here with 2.4 blocks per game this year, while Samson Johnson adds .9 blocks per game. Further, Cam Spencer has 1.4 steals per game this year.
Final San Diego State-UConn Prediction & Pick
While San Diego State is a quality team, they are not on the same level as UConn. San Diego State has a solid defense and relies on that defense to win games. Still, UConn has the better defense overall. UConn also has the better offense in this one. UConn has been dominant so far in the tournament, and with San Diego State struggling to score in long stretches, that will continue in this one.
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Final San Diego State-UConn Prediction & Pick: UConn -10.5 (-118)
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