The San Jose State Spartans take on the USC Trojans. Check out our college football odds series for our San Jose State USC prediction and pick. Find how to watch San Jose State USC.

The USC Trojans were not expected to win 11 games last year in the first season of the Lincoln Riley era. They were better than expected. Yet, they gave up 46 or more points in each of their last two games and lost them both. USC had a chance to make the College Football Playoff but fell short. It then blew a 15-point lead in the final four and a half minutes against Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. The 11-1 start to the season was forgotten. The main theme of the season was that coordinator Alex Grinch's defense was once again not up to par. It has been an undeniably common theme of Grinch's association with Riley. The Riley offense is so good that the quality of Grinch's defense usually doesn't matter, but in the biggest games of the season — against better opponents — it does matter. It has mattered. USC enters this season trying to get enough improvement on defense that the talents of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams can lead the Trojans to a Pac-12 championship and the playoff. The journey for USC begins in Week Zero. The offense will stuff the highlight reel, but all eyes will be on a defense which urgently needs to improve.

Here are the San Jose State-USC College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: San Jose State-USC Odds

San Jose State Spartans: +30.5 (-108)

USC Trojans: -30.5 (-112)

Over: 66.5 (-105)

Under: 66.5 (-115)

How To Watch San Jose State vs. USC

TV: Pac-12 Network

Stream: Pac-12 Now

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT

*Watch San Jose State vs USC LIVE on fuboTV (click for free trial)*

Why San Jose State Could Cover the Spread

The Spartans can lose this game by 30 points and still cover the spread. If they can score three touchdowns — 21 points — they will force USC to score at least 52 points to cover. Given the weakness of the USC defense under Alex Grinch, and given all the questions on the roster at this early point in the season, it is reasonable to think that San Jose State quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, voted the preseason 2023 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year, can make enough big plays to score at least 21 points if not more. Cordeiro has a trusted wide receiver in Justin Lockhart, who was voted to the preseason All-Mountain West first team alongside Cordeiro. San Jose State can score enough points to cover.

Why USC Could Cover the Spread

After all that he did in 2022, Caleb Williams is back in 2023. He should be better than ever. USC's offense should therefore be better than ever. The Trojans should not have a hard time scoring over 50 points in this game. They should do pretty much whatever they want with the San Jose State defense. The caliber of athleticism and talent is just way too high for the Spartans to cope with. USC just needs a moderately good performance from its defense to feel good about covering the spread. If the Trojans hold the Spartans to 20 points or fewer, an offense likely to score at least 52 points should cover the spread. Even if Williams is substituted out of the game in the third quarter, USC can still play its backups and physically dominate San Jose State's defense.

Final San Jose State-USC Prediction & Pick

The spread is a natural point of intrigue, but with USC's offense likely to go wild, and with USC's defense unlikely to pitch a shutout or play at a dominant level, the over is the play here. USC should score in the 50s, and SJSU should score at least 14. As long as USC goes over 52, the total should go over 66.5.

Final San Jose State-USC Prediction & Pick: Over 66.5