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The Ottawa Senators are gearing up for the 2024-25 season. NHL Free Agency is done and over with now. The Senators have a new head coach in Travis Green. Ottawa made a massive trade for Linus Ullmark with the Boston Bruins this summer. And the team's training camp activities are going to commence about a month from now.
One of Green's goals to begin his tenure in Canada's national capital is rebounding from a disappointing 2023-24 campaign. Ottawa entered the season with playoff aspirations. However, they failed to live up to expectations and missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs altogether. In fact, only the Montreal Canadiens finished lower than the Senators in the Atlantic Division.
Ottawa has breakout candidates on the roster who could help them make a playoff push. However, there are also regression candidates on the Senators roster who could take a step back in 2024-25. And one of them happens to be a recent offseason signing of theirs.
David Perron could regress
David Perron spent the last two seasons with the Detroit Red Wings. The veteran forward inked a two-year contract after his third stint with the St. Louis Blues. And he remained consistent as a member of the Red Wings. Perron posted back-to-back 45+ point seasons, giving him eight straight 45+ point seasons dating back to 2016-17.
In 2024-25, this could change. Perron scored 17 goals and 47 points for Detroit this past season. However, his analytics show warning signs of regression with his new team. For instance, according to Evolving Hockey, the veteran forward had a WAR barely above 0, and an expected WAR in the negatives.
Perron finished with 4.8 Offensive Goals Above Replacement in 2023-24. Additionally, he finished with a Goals For Percentage of 46.29%. Both of these totals are well above his expected performance. He had an xOGAR of -0.2 and an xGF% of 42.26%.
Perron certainly provides value off the ice. Many reports coming out of Detroit indicated that the veteran was a valuable locker room presence. That sort of role is important to have, especially on a team like the Senators. In saying this, it's not too unrealistic to expect his on-ice production to drop off in 2024-25.
Ridly Greig may experience a sophomore slump
The Senators have some youth on their roster heading into the 2024-25. As such, it's hard to pick out players like David Perron who are more obvious regression candidates. In saying this, regression comes in more ways than one. And the dreaded sophomore slump could rear its ugly head for young forward Ridly Greig.
Greig played his first full season in the NHL this past year. In 72 games, the Lethbridge, Alberta native scored 13 goals and 26 points. However, his impact on the team was much greater. He finished with 8.1 Offensive Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey.
Greig finished the season with a Goals For Percentage of 54.89%. Additionally, he had a Goals For Per 60 Minutes of 2.9. Like with Perron, both of Greig's actual totals outpaced his expected performance. His xGF% was 50.42 and his xGF/60 was 2.6.
This is not to suggest Greig is going to fall of a cliff. Nor is this to suggest that he can't become a solid NHL producer down the line. However, there is certainly something to suggest that his impact on the ice won't be as big. Especially since other teams now have a better understanding of how the 22-year-old operates on the ice.
