At one point this season, the Ottawa Senators' rebuild looked like a lost cause. Everyone wondered whether it was time for Ottawa to get rid of pieces of its core and have a mini retool to get things back on track. However, the Senators are one of the hottest teams in the league and are now just five points behind the Florida Panthers for first in the Atlantic Division. The impressive thing is that most of their success has come without goaltender Linus Ullmark. The Tampa Bay Lightning hope to slow some of that momentum and make up the ground in the division, as they are currently on the outside looking into the playoff picture for the first time in a long time. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Senators-Lightning prediction and pick.
Here are the Senators-Lightning NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Senators-Lightning Odds
Ottawa Senators: +1.5 (-180)
Moneyline: +155
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -185
Over: 5.5 (-120)
Under: 5.5 (+100)
How To Watch Senators vs. Lightning
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: RDS, TSN5, Fanduel Sports Network
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Why the Senators Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Senators have won five consecutive games and seven of their past ten. Ottawa has scored points in eight of ten games, which has put them third in the Atlantic Division. The Senators have impressive victories over that span, including against the Minnesota Wild, Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins.
The Senators have been in the middle of the rebuild for most of the Lightning's dominance in the Atlantic Division. It would make sense if the Lightning had dominated the regular season series, but that is far from the truth. The Senators' offense has been lights out against the Lightning, scoring four or more goals in six of their past seven games. Ottawa has also won six of seven games and covered the spread in four of those wins. The Senators have been a challenging matchup.
Anton Forsberg and Leevi Merilainen have held down the fort for the Senators since Linus Ullmark's injury. They combined for a 1.60 goals-against average and a .950 save percentage over this five-game winning streak, which is enough for any team to win. However, combining that with the Senators scoring five or more goals in three consecutive games is a recipe for a very successful team.
Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win
Unsurprisingly, the Lightning have fallen out of the playoff picture, as they have a record of just 4-5-1 in their past ten games. The Lightning's offense has been struggling, averaging just 2.5 goals per game over their past ten. It's a lot of pressure to put on their goaltenders, as even the great Andrei Vasilevskiy can't lead the team to victories when they are scoring so few goals. Tampa Bay has the potential to get things back on track, and the offense will need to be the catalyst. Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson combined for a 2.00 goals-against average and a .904 save percentage.
Final Senators-Lightning Prediction & Pick
It's hard to argue with the Senators' momentum, and their recent success over the Lightning is even better. Despite that, the oddsmakers have the Senators as massive underdogs. Maybe the oddsmakers are trying to lure us into the trap of taking Ottawa, but we'll take the bait.
Final Senators-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Senators ML (+155)