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The San Jose Sharks had a disastrous 2023-24 season. While it ended with the Sharks picking Macklin Celebrini in the 2024 NHL Draft, San Jose completely bottomed out. The team suffered a historically bad start to the season, and they simply never recovered.
To be fair, the Sharks made moves to improve the roster in NHL Free Agency. Tyler Toffoli signed with the Sharks on a four-year contract back on July 1. Additionally, Alex Wennberg signed on once the market opened. Other moves include trades for Jake Walman, Ty Dellandrea, and Yaroslav Askarov.
San Jose has a bright future ahead. The Sharks roster has a few breakout candidates who could make an impact in 2024-25. However, the roster also consists of players who could regress in the year ahead. Let's take a closer look at two Sharks regression candidates ahead of the 2024-25 campaign.
Mikael Granlund is a regression candidate
Mikael Granlund joined the Sharks last summer as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. Granlund struggled with the Pittsburgh Penguins following a trade around the NHL Trade Deadline. In San Jose, though, he showed he still has something left in the tank.
Granlund scored 12 goals and 60 points while playing 69 games in 2023-24 for San Jose. His 60 points outpaced everyone on San Jose's roster. In fact, the next-best Sharks point scorer was William Eklund, who scored 45 points in 80 games.
Granlund had a major impact on a team devoid of offense. The veteran forward led all San Jose players in Offensive Goals Above Replacement (12.4) in 2023-24, according to Evolving Hockey. His impact at even strength was impressive, as he had 9.3 OGAR at even strength this past season.
These are great numbers, but there are warning signs of regression. Granlund had an OGAR of 12.4, but his xOGAR was just 5.3. His expected impact at even strength was not too far off his actual mark. In saying this, his xEVO of 6.3 represents a notable overperformance.
Even if the analytics didn't suggest a potential regression, the team's current lineup does. Granlund played first-line minutes for the Sharks in 2023-24. With the additions of Tyler Toffoli and Macklin Celebrini, it's unlikely that this will happen in 2024-25.
Granlund can still provide offense for this team. In fact, he likely still occupies a top-six and power-play role for San Jose. Having said this, it's likely the veteran forward will fail to reach the 60-point mark in the year ahead.
Alex Wennberg could take a step back
As mentioned, Alex Wennberg signed a two-year contract with San Jose this offseason. The veteran forward split this past season with the Seattle Kraken and New York Rangers after a trade at the deadline. In 2024-25, Wennberg could see his on-ice impact take a step back.
Wennberg had a fine season in 2023-24. He scored 30 points across 79 games with the Kraken and Rangers. He finished the year with 9.9 Offensive Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. This marks the highest OGAR he has achieved since the 2017-18 campaign.
Like Granlund, there is some overperformance in Wennberg's analytics. The new Sharks forward had 6.5 Offensive Goals Above Replacement at even strength this past season. However, his xEVO was just 1.9. Additionally, there is a slight overperformance between his WAR (1.5) and his xWAR (0.8).
Wennberg can certainly provide value down the lineup. And if Will Smith makes the Sharks roster, Wennberg should be in a role more suited to him. In saying this, the impact he makes on the team overall may be a bit less than what he showed in 2023-24.
