One name that came as a bit of a surprise on the coaching hot seat last week was that of UCLA's Chip Kelly. This is now Kelly's sixth season in Pasadena, yet there haven't quite been the results possibly everyone expected from the former Oregon coach.
While in Eugene, Kelly never lost more than three games in a season and won 10 games or more from 2009-2012. At UCLA, however, Kelly has never had anything better than last year's nine-win season, and before that, 8-4 the year prior. In his first three years with the Bruins, he won a combined 10 games, with some of that accounting for a pandemic season in which they only played seven games.
The rumor going into last week's game against cross-town rival USC was that Kelly was presumably going to be fired, especially if the Bruins lost. We'll never know that for sure now as UCLA more or less dominated the Trojans, beating them 38-20 in their own place, leaving former coach turned analyst Dan Mullen questioning if the right coaching in Los Angeles was on the hot seat.
Kelly and UCLA football now have one game remaining at home against a not-so-great Cal team that will be hoping to upset the Bruins to get their sixth win to make a bowl game. If UCLA were to pull out the victory, they would move to 8-4 with the opportunity to at least match last year's win total. But will that be good enough for UCLA to keep Kelly?
UCLA football's move to the Big Ten raises questions for Chip Kelly's future
It's an interesting time in the sport of college football, where now a program like UCLA has to reassess everything, particularly due to their upcoming move to the Big Ten conference, which will be a completely different animal.
As good as the Pac-12 has been in its final season, that could be a minor precursor to how the competition in the Big Ten will be next year when Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA all bring their Pacific Northwestern flare to the mainly northeastern conference. Being the new neighbors, those like UCLA and USC—the original two to join before Oregon and Washington tagged along after the continuous conference realignment—want to make a good impression since they're getting their equal share of the revenue now. That means they have to stay competitive within the conference.
Does that mean firing Chip Kelly? Again, assess the upcoming situation and coaching around the conference. There's Ryan Day, James Franklin, and Jim Harbaugh (for now) as the elite of the original Big Ten, but now you also have to account for the likes of Matt Rhule rebuilding Nebraska and Luke Fickell doing the same at Wisconsin. Plus, you have to factor in all your Pac-12 neighbors that are now joining you. How does Kelly rank among coaches in the upcoming Big Ten?
If Harbaugh were to leave for the NFL, that certainly helps. But you probably have to consider Kelly around the middle of the pack. So then if you're UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond, you have to have realistic expectations for the program with or without Kelly and who you could get if you wanted to replace him.
Assessing the UCLA football program for what it is
UCLA football hasn't won a conference championship since 1998 and when there were still divisions, hadn't won their side of the Pac-12 south since 2012. They also haven't had double-digit win seasons since going back-to-back in 2013 and 2014 under Jim Mora.
In his six seasons, Kelly has only made one bowl game—a 37-35 Sun Bowl loss to Pitt—and has one top-25 finish, which was last season, finishing No. 21. Three weeks ago, the Bruins were No. 19 in the country but lost to what has been a surprisingly good Arizona team under Jedd Fisch. But the second consecutive loss to a bad Arizona State team is what leaves UCLA unranked and had a “Fire Chip Kelly” movement coming out of L.A.
“Two weeks ago, UCLA was No. 19 in the country, but since then, they lose at Arizona and then have a really ugly performance at home against a really bad Arizona State,” Bruce Feldman said on last week's Big Noon Kickoff. “And there was a published report out of L.A. that said UCLA was trying to fire Chip Kelly.
“Now, since then, UCLA’s biggest booster Casey Wasserman has called any of the ‘Fire Chip’ talk ‘ridiculous.’ On Thursday night, I talked to UCLA AD Martin Jarmond, who was very dismissive of the ‘Fire Chip’ talk as well, and he described that story as ‘clickbait.’”
UCLA picking up a win over rival USC — where it looked to have righted its struggling offense and lack of quarterback production — was significant for quieting the “Fire Chip Kelly” talks, if there indeed were some legitimate ones. With what should be a win over Cal on Saturday and a potential bowl win, that puts UCLA at nine wins and as good as they've been in almost a decade. But is that good enough? For now, I'd say so. Chip Kelly is the best answer to UCLA football.
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