Game four of the Stanley Cup Final kicks off tonight as the Tampa Bay Lightning play host to the Colorado Avalanche. The Avalanche currently lead the series 2-1 after winning the first two games at home but the Lightning fought back in game three in a must-win scenario. Tonight is another one of those games where if the Avalanche go up 3-1 before returning home for game five, the Lightning will be in full panic mode. Can they pull off a win and stay alive tonight? Let's find out as it’s time to continue our NHL odds series with an Avalanche-Lightning prediction and pick.
Here are the Avalanche-Lightning NHL Odds, Courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Avalanche-Lightning Odds
Colorado Avalanche: +1.5 (-265) (-110 ML)
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+215) (-110 ML)
Over: 6 (+104)
Under: 6 (-130)
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Why The Avalanche Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Colorado Avalanche have been on a tear this entire season, let alone in the postseason where they are 14-3 while averaging 4.6 goals per game. They are such a fast-paced team that it's hard to keep up with them, let alone compete with them. The Avs have executed their powerplay flawlessly so far this season, and as long as the Lightning keep taking penalties, the Avs will keep capitalizing. The biggest question mark in this series is the health of Nazem Kadri, who had surgery on his thumb and would like to come back for this series but has not been deemed fully healthy. He could find his way back tonight, but it will be a game-time decision.
The goaltending for Colorado hasn't been exactly ideal (besides the game two shutout). Darcy Kuemper will likely get the call again tonight as he'll need to cut down the angles more and control his rebounds.
Why The Lightning Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Tampa Bay Lightning are not out of this series just yet. They're back-to-back champions for a reason and have been in this position before (last series against the New York Rangers). They're back on home ice tonight, which is a sigh of relief for goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy as he performs better when they're in their own building. He's obviously the main story for the Bolts as he needs to continue to step up his game and shut down the Avs' offense. The other big story for the Bolts would be their penalties. The Avs strive on the powerplay and will have no problem taking full advantage, as they have all series long. As long as the Bolts can find ways to be more disciplined, then they have a good chance of winning the cup.
Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction & Pick
The first tell for this matchup is that the odds are a pick-em. Both teams are listed at -110, which makes it a toss-up. However, our tried and true method of just taking the over until it fails us in.. plus money for some reason? The over has hit in every game so far this series, by a good amount too, I'm not sure why it's now the underdog to take the over, but that seems like a no-brainer. Unless the odds makers know something that we don't, the over is the obvious pick here, especially to win some money.
Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction and Pick: Over 6 (+104)
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