The Colorado Avalanche will try to win Lord Stanley's Cup as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Lightning-Avalanche prediction and pick.
The Avalanche defeated the Lightning in an overtime thriller on Wednesday, setting up the stage for a potential closeout game tonight. Colorado trailed 1-0 in the second period when Nathan MacKinnon connected on a power-play goal off assists from Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. Tampa Bay answered back with a Victor Hedman goal to put the Lightning up 2-1.
The Avs responded in the third when Andrew Cogliano answered with the game-tying goal. Neither team could score through the rest of regulation, and it was time for overtime. There was plenty of back and forth in the extra frame when the Avalanche took advantage of a tired Lightning defense to pluck in the game-winner. Nazem Kadri became the hero when he took a pass from Artturi Lehkonen and fired a laser into the net. There was confusion for 15 seconds as no one knew where the puck was, not even Kadri. Likewise, it was not until his teammates circled the net did everyone realize that Kadri's shot had flung the net into the top half of the net. Kadri and his teammates flung into celebration after realizing he had scored the game-winner and gave the Avs a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Colorado has won two Stanley Cup championships in their history, the last coming in 2001 against the New Jersey Devils. Now, they have a chance to cement their third championship by potentially dethroning the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The Avs are 15-3 in these playoffs and have shown the rest of the NHL what it takes to build a championship-contending team.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Lightning-Avalanche odds:
NHL odds: Lightning-Avalanche Odds
Lightning: +1.5 (-175) ML (+146)
Avalanche: -1.5 (+140) ML (-176)
Over: 6 (-114)
Under: 6 (-106)
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Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread
The Lightning are still two-time defending champions. Moreover, they have a championship pedigree. Tampa Bay has the weapons to get the job done. However, time is running out, and winning three in a row against Colorado looks impossible.
Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov have been the best players for the Lightning throughout these playoffs. Palat has scored 10 goals and nine assists, while Kucherov has tallied seven goals and 19 assists. Additionally, Hedman and Steven Stamkos have done exceptionally well. Hedman has three goals and 15 assists, while Stamkos has produced 10 goals and seven assists. The rest of the lineup has fallen flat. Corey Perry has the highest point total with nine, and guys like Braydon Point and Alex Killorn have not delivered at the level they usually do.
Andrei Vasilevskiy must shine in net. He allowed three goals on 37 shots on Wednesday, but it was not good enough. Vasilevskiy has not done well in the two games in Denver, and that could spell trouble. He must adjust, and perform better on the road to keep the Lightning's season alive.
The Lightning will cover the spread if their supporting cast can produce offensively. Likewise, Tampa Bay needs Kucherov, Stamkos, and Hedman to take over the game and produce. Vasilevskiy must transfer his superior home performance to this game if the Lightning are to survive.
Why The Avalanche Could Cover The Spread
The Avalanche have displayed why many picked them to win the Stanley Cup. They played relentless hockey and did not let up an inch, pressuring the Lightning into making mistakes. Kadri scored his first career playoff overtime goal. It was a goal that the Lightning did not agree with because they believed the Avs had six skaters on the ice. Regardless, the goal counted, and the Avs are a win away from closing it out.
MacKinnon has performed spectacularly in the playoffs, producing 12 goals and nine assists. Also, Makar has shined, with seven goals and 20 assists. Rantanen has five goals and 20 assists, and Gabriel Landeskog has chipped in 11 goals and 10 assists. Aside from Kadri, the Avs have other amazing supporting talents like Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin, and Lehkonen. The depth the Avs possess is amazing, and a significant reason they are one win away from a championship.
The Avalanche will cover the spread if their offense continues to play relentlessly, and their defense holds the big-three Lightning scorers at bay. Colorado has the tools to do that.
Final Lightning-Avalanche Prediction & Pick
The Lightning are in a bind. The overtime loss was a heartbreaker. Now, they head to Denver with their season on the line. Expect the Avalanche to see a fight but ultimately pull away and hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.
Final Lightning-Avalanche Prediction & Pick: Avalanche: ML (-176)
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