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UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 kicks off the prelims with a fight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Clayton Carpenter in the flyweight division. Ulanbekov comes into this fight with back-to-back submission victories meanwhile, Carpenter remains unbeaten winning each of his two fights inside the octagon. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Ulanbekov-Carpenter prediction and pick.
Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2) missed weight in his only scheduled fight in 2024 against Joshua Van where he weighed in at 129.5 lbs which was 3.5 lbs over the 126-pound limit. This will be his first fight in 15 months and will be looking to extend his winning streak to three in a row when he takes on undefeated prospect Clayton Carpenter.
Clayton Carpenter (8-0) was one of the top prospects coming onto the 2022 season of the Contender Series and he didn't disappoint when he and Edgar Chairez stole the show. Now, Carpenter is 8-0 with 2 wins in the UFC and will be looking to kick off the new year with the biggest win of his career when he takes on Tagir Ulanbekov this weekend at UFC 311.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Odds
Tagir Ulanbekov: -325
Clayton Carpenter: +260
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Tagir Ulanbekov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Cody Durden – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (9 SUB)
Tagir Ulanbekov is poised to secure a victory over Clayton Carpenter at UFC 311 this weekend. Ulanbekov's experience edge is significant, with a 15-2 professional record compared to Carpenter's 8-0. The Russian fighter has faced tougher competition in the UFC, including a recent submission win over Cody Durden at UFC 296. Ulanbekov's grappling prowess, evidenced by his nine submission victories, could prove decisive against the less experienced Carpenter.
While Carpenter is undefeated and shows promise, he has yet to face an opponent of Ulanbekov's caliber. Ulanbekov's well-rounded skill set, combining strong wrestling with improved striking, should allow him to control the fight's pace and location. His ability to finish fights, particularly by submission, gives him multiple paths to victory. Carpenter's relative inexperience at the highest level may be exposed against a seasoned competitor like Ulanbekov, who has proven himself capable of performing under the bright lights of the UFC.
Why Clayton Carpenter Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Lucas Rocha – SUB R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (2 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Clayton Carpenter is poised to upset Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 this weekend, despite being the underdog. Carpenter's perfect 8-0 record, including two impressive UFC victories, showcases his ability to perform at the highest level. His well-rounded skill set, combining powerful striking with a smothering ground game, makes him a threat in all areas. Carpenter's recent submission victory over Lucas Rocha demonstrates his finishing ability and growing confidence in the Octagon.
While Ulanbekov is a skilled grappler, Carpenter's wrestling background and submission defense should neutralize this advantage. Carpenter's superior striking accuracy (51% vs. Ulanbekov's 46%) and higher takedown average (2.47 per 15 minutes vs. Ulanbekov's 1.79) suggest he can control the fight's pace and location. At 28, Carpenter is entering his prime and has shown consistent improvement throughout his career. His youth, athleticism, and momentum make him a formidable challenge for the more experienced Ulanbekov.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Prediction & Pick
To kick off the first PPV of the year we have a scrap in the flyweight division between Tagir Ulanbekov and Clayton Carpenter. This will be Ulanbekov's first fight since December 2023 after multiple fight cancelations have kept him out of action in 2024. As for Carpenter, this will only be his third fight in his UFC career after getting signed off his win against Edgar Chairez on the Contender Series in 2022.
Ulanbekov has faced the who's who of the flyweight division while this is a monumental step up in competition for Carpenter who will be taking on his first ranked competition in his short undefeated career. Both Ulanbekov and Carpenter are great grapplers with 13 combined submissions between the two of them which should make for some great scrambles on the mat. However, it seems as if Ulanbekov will be a step above Carpenter in the grappling in this matchup but Carpenter will have the speed and power advantages on the feet. Ultimately, it will boil down who can utilize their advantages to the fullest in this fight, and seeing as how Ulanbekov is more battle-tested in his UFC career, he should be able to avoid the power shots of Carpenter on the feet and then drag him to the mat where he will control him for the majority of the fight en route to a decision victory.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Prediction & Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov (-325), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)
