In 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the feel-good stories of the NFL season.
Originally heading into the year with a journeyman quarterback on a $3 million deal and a former second-round pick with just 23 passing yards on his resume, the Buccaneers slowly but surely established themselves as the best team in the NFC South, winning nine games in one of the more unusual divisions in the NFL on the way to a fourth-place finish in the NFC and a surprise win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wildcard round.
While that success didn't continue into the Divisional Round, with the Detroit Lions securing a 31-23 point win on their home turf, the Buccaneers look primed to do it again this fall, as they are now the favorites to represent the South this fall, instead of the feel-good Cinderella story.
And what better opponent to make that happen against than the Washington Commanders in Week 1, a team with a new rookie quarterback, new coaching staff, and plenty of uncertainty across the board?
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1. Baker Mayfield looks worth his $100 million contract
In the lead-up to the 2024 NFL calendar year, one of the biggest questions surrounding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was how they would handle Bakyer Mayfield's next contract.
On paper, the former Oklahoma Heisman winner looked very good running Todd Bowles' offense, recording his first-ever 4,000-yard passing season as a pro, and despite throwing ten interceptions, his most since 2021, he more than made up for it with a career-high 28 touchdowns on his way to a Pro Bowl appearance. Sure, Dave Canales was hired away by the Carolina Panthers, but Mike Evans returned for the 2024 season, as did many of the team's offensive starters, and as a result, much of the structure that led to his massive comeback seasons was still in place.
Fortunately, the Bucs were able to reach a compromise with their quarterback, signing him to a three-year, $100 million contract, and in Week 1, fans will get to see if his unique offensive game will translate now that it comes with a much higher price tag.
Fortunately, Mayfield and the Buccaneers will be getting the first crack at that apple against a Washington team that wasn't particularly good against the pass last season.
Now granted, it's hard to really compare last season's team to this year's, as both Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio are gone and replaced with former Cowboys DC Dan Quinn, but the Commanders ranked last in both passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2023, and while they have swapped out some parts, few expect them to have an elite cover unit this fall.
If the Buccaneers can come correct with some strong passing concepts to open up the game, and the Commanders even just take a quarter to get their offense on track, it's possible Mayfield and company could run the score up enough to force rookie QB Jaylen Daniels to throw the ball more and potentially make some mistakes against Bowles' always effective defense.
2. Jayden Daniels puts up yards on the Buccaneers defense
While Mayfield has a chance to throw the ball early and often this week against a questionable Commanders secondary, that road may run two ways, as Daniels may also be looking to air the ball out in his NFL debut, especially if the Buccaneers come out to an early lead.
Drafted into the NFL second overall out of LSU, Daniels won the 2024 Heisman Trophy for a reason, as he went off for 3,812 passing yards and 40 touchdowns versus just four interceptions for the Tigers. Factor in a cool 1,134 yards plus ten more touchdowns on the ground, and there's little reason to wonder why LSU had a 10-3 record last season or why the Commanders selected Daniels second overall over players like Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr, or J.J. McCarthy.
Sure, the Commanders lost a former first-round pick in Jahan Dotson in an improbable preseason trade and watched Curtis Samuel leave for the Buffalo Bills in free agency, but they still have Terry McLaurin and padded out the position grouping with Luke McCaffrey in the draft, and the dynamic trio of Noah Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, and tight end Zach Ertz in free agency.
And as for the Buccaneers? Well, while they should still be a quality defense this fall, they did lose some former starters in Carlton Davis and Devin White and could take a quarter or two of their own to figure things out against a quarterback who can really attack opposing teams from across the field. While that probably isn't as worrisome as what the Commanders are dealing with, it could create a shootout in DC that leaves fans on the edge of their seats.
3. Tampa Bay finishes Week 1 with a 1-0 record
So, if Baker is able to put up stats against a questionable Commanders defense and Daniels has to air it out to keep up with his counterpart despite an early point differential, that would suggest Tampa Bay could be heading straight for a 1-0 record to start out the season, right?
Yes, the Bucs are favorites in this game for a reason, and while some fans may decide to bet on the Commanders because they are such a mystery, that doesn't mean it's necessarily the correct call heading into Week 1. If Mayfield and company can turn in an impressive first effort in Landover, Maryland, this weekend under new coordinator Liam Coen, it might be just the first of many wins for a team with serious aspirations for the NFC South pennant.
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