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Taylor Fritz takes on Frances Tiafoe. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Fritz Tiafoe prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Fritz Tiafoe.
This is a semifinal match at the U.S. Open men's tournament which has been a long time coming. Not since Andre Agassi and Robby Ginepri met in the 2005 U.S. Open semifinals have two Americans clashed at this latter stage of America's major tennis championship. That's 19 years between all-American men's semifinals, a very long time. The last time an American man made the U.S. Open final: 2006, when Andy Roddick lost to Roger Federer. Things that haven't happened in nearly 20 years are happening right now, with American tennis having a very successful fortnight in New York. Two American women, Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula, reached the semifinals. We will see if either of them — or maybe even both — can reach Saturday's final. When Navarro and Pegula are done on Thursday, the scene will shift to Friday for the men's semis. Fritz and Tiafoe will play in prime time under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
It is notable that over the past several years at the U.S. Open, it was usually the case that when the semifinal order of play was established for Friday, the semifinal featuring the winners of the Tuesday quarterfinal matches would go first. The winners of the Wednesday quarterfinals would go second. The logic was obvious and appropriate. The Wednesday quarterfinal winners needed more time to rest. Hence, they went second. The Tuesday players had Wednesday and Thursday off, so it was logical to make them play first on Friday. However, because of the all-American dimension of this Fritz-Tiafoe semifinal, the match is second on Friday even though Fritz and Tiafoe won their quarterfinals on Tuesday. Jannik Sinner and Jack Draper played on Wednesday and not Tuesday. Yet, they will be asked to play first on Friday in the afternoon. Fritz and Tiafoe get the night lights and the big stage. That's how big a ticket this is.
Taylor Fritz has finally reached his first major semifinal. He came close at Wimbledon but lost to Lorenzo Musetti in the quarters. He finally got over the hump by beating Alexander Zverev in the U.S. Open quarterfinals. He won two tiebreakers in that match with his serve. He might need to win more tiebreakers in this match to reach his first major final on Sunday.
Frances Tiafoe has played in the U.S. Open semifinals before. He played Carlos Alcaraz two years ago and put up a very good fight before losing. He won't be intimidated by Fritz, but he doesn't have as good a serve as Fritz and will need to have his forehand in top form to pull off the (slight) upset.
Here are the Fritz-Tiafoe U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe
Game Spread:
Fritz -4.5: -106
Tiafoe +4.5: -128
Moneyline:
Fritz -275
Tiafoe +220
To Win First Set:
Fritz -178
Tiafoe +146
Total Games In Match:
Over 39.5: -120
Under 39.5: -110
Total Games Won:
Fritz over 21.5: -110
Fritz under 21.5: -120
Tiafoe over 19.5: -106
Tiafoe under 19.5: -126
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Taylor Fritz Will Win
Fritz has a much bigger and better serve, which will win free points in important moments. The Tiafoe forehand is likely not good enough to win this match. Fritz's forehand is better.
Why Frances Tiafoe Will Win
Tiafoe gets up for the big matches. He played Carlos Alcaraz very closely in a memorable Wimbledon match earlier this season. He will play to the crowd and remain energized throughout the match, putting pressure on Fritz all the time. He will stay close enough to cover the spread.
Final Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe Prediction & Pick
This match is not easy to assess, but some scenarios are more likely than others: Both players are likely to win at least one set, meaning the match should go at least four sets. Fritz is the better player, but Tiafoe is getting 4.5 games instead of 2.5. You can hedge here and see if you can “middle” the match. Go with Tiafoe against the spread but Fritz over total games. If the match does go at least four sets, you could cash both tickets, not just one.
Final Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe Prediction & Pick: Tiafoe +4.5 games, Fritz over 21.5 games
