The TCU Horned Frogs will face off against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2022 College Football Playoff at the State Farm Stadium. The Horned Frogs are the underdogs in this matchup, as the Wolverines have a strong and successful football program. However, TCU football will no doubt be determined to put up a fight and potentially pull off an upset against the Wolverines. It should be an exciting and closely contested Fiesta Bowl game between two talented college football teams.
TCU football will participate in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl as the No. 3 seed. This marks the first time the Horned Frogs have made it to the College Football Playoff. Despite suffering a loss in the Big 12 championship game to No. 10 Kansas State, TCU's undefeated 12-0 record in the regular season was enough to secure a spot in the CFP.
Sure, some people continue to cast doubt on the Horned Frogs. However, TCU football has proven to be a top-3 team. That's thanks in part to the exceptional play of star QB Max Duggan. On the other hand, the Horned Frogs will have to work extra hard to avoid a similar fate to Michigan's football team last year. Recall that last year's Wolverines were just happy to make the playoff and saw their season end after the Big Ten championship. Ironically, Michigan football is now in a position to deal that same result to TCU.
Having said that, let's get into TCU's one fatal flaw that Michigan will try to exploit in the Fiesta Bowl.
Cannot wait to see Jim Harbaugh line this up in front of TCU’s 3-3-5 defense. pic.twitter.com/kUV6O1l20K
— 〽️Maize&BlueCarcajou〽️ (@flashdilithium) December 4, 2022
TCU's 3-3-5 Defense
Keep in mind that TCU football competes in the Big 12. It's a conference known for a variety of air raid offenses. That clarifies why the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 defensive plan has been a staple. When TCU plays the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl, we expect the Horned Frogs to continue deploying three linemen, three linebackers, and five defensive backs.
Matt Weiss, Michigan's co-offensive coordinator, acknowledged that the Wolverines lack much Big Ten expertise in dealing with a five defensive back approach. The Ohio State Buckeyes may have dabbled in that style occasionally since they hired Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State this past season. However, the Wolverines' offense will see TCU's brand of defense for the very first time on Saturday. This may mean that while Michigan's identity as a team will not change, its offensive approach may vary at times.
“We certainly don’t have much experience,” said Weiss. “Ohio State has a little bit of flavor with that, with James Knowles coming from Oklahoma State, Big 12-style defense. They play three safeties and some of that stuff… We haven’t seen anybody play like this all season. It’s a different style.”
The painful reality for TCU fans is that even if the Horned Frogs have had a strong season, their defense has been a weakness. Despite boasting a high-scoring offense, their defense has struggled to keep up, particularly in the secondary. They have given up 19 touchdowns through the air, tied for 72nd nationally. While they have also recorded 14 interceptions, tied for 15th nationally, opponents have still had success throwing against them.
On defense, TCU football typically fields three safeties and two corners. Strangely enough, however, even with the extra defensive back, the Horned Frogs have struggled against the pass. In fact, they rank 83rd in the country in that area. They even give up an average of 235.6 yards per game. Despite earning a spot in the CFP, TCU's defense has been carried by their offense for much of the season. Remember that the Horned Frogs allow an average of 25 points per game. That ranks 58th in the FBS. In short, that's far from elite defense.
In contrast, Michigan's defense allowed 25 points in just one game this entire season. TCU does have a slight advantage in terms of forcing turnovers, averaging 1.5 takeaways per game. However, Michigan has been exceptionally careful with the ball, committing only seven turnovers in their 13 wins. Another area of weakness for TCU is its run defense. Take note that the Horned Frogs allow an average of 4.1 yards per carry. This could be a favorable matchup for Michigan, whose offensive line is considered one of the best in college football.
This is also a potential weakness that Michigan QB JJ McCarthy can exploit. If he can consistently connect with his receiving corps against the 3-3-5 defense, this could be over quickly.
“I see a lot of opportunities for our smash fest to kind of take advantage of that,” McCarthy told MLive.com's Aaron McMann. “That definitely excites me, but at the end of the day who knows what’s going to happen? We’ll be ready for it.”
Overall, the Horned Frogs have the 74th-ranked total defense in the country. In order to be competitive in this game against the unbeaten Wolverines, TCU will need to tighten up its defense on all levels. They just have to find a way to slow down Michigan's explosive offense. If the Horned Frogs can do this, an upset is possible. They may even see themselves in the National Championship Game for the first time ever.
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