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For the first time on one of their home turfs, Tennessee and Ohio State will meet this Saturday in a first-round College Football Playoff matchup. The No. 9-seeded Volunteers will head into “The Horseshoe” to take on the No. 8-seeded Buckeyes, marking only the second meeting in history between these two storied programs.
Out of all the four first-round games, this one might be the most intriguing. Not only does it pit the SEC against the Big Ten, but the winner will advance to face No. 1-seeded Oregon in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl.
Both Tennessee and Ohio State are coming off 10-2 campaigns, just missing out on their respective conference title games. But with the regular season in the rearview, everything is now on the line come Saturday.
Each team is looking to prove something. For Vols head coach Josh Heupel, this is an opportunity to improve his road record, which currently sits at 7-9. On the flip side, Ryan Day, under his own significant scrutiny, is hoping for a win to quiet critics and potentially solidify his future in Columbus.
With that said, let’s dive into our Tennessee bold predictions versus Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Dylan Sampson runs for over 110 yards a two touchdowns
With temperatures expected to be in the low teens on Saturday night, running the ball could be at a premium for both teams. Fortunately for the Vols, they have one of the best running backs in the country in Dylan Sampson.
Sampson finished ninth in the nation in rushing yards with 1,485 and fourth in rushing touchdowns with 22, setting a Tennessee single-season record for rushing scores in the process. While one of Ohio State's biggest strengths is its rushing defense—ranked seventh in the country—Sampson remains a legitimate breakout threat, especially with Heupel likely leaning heavily on him.
Sampson was held under 100 yards just twice this season and only failed to score a touchdown in one game, however, he was held to not a single touchdown in three games this year.
Nico Iamaleava throws for at least one touchdown
It's been quite the inconsistent season for Nico Iamaleava. The redshirt freshman, once a highly-touted high school prospect, was expected to break out for the Vols this year. While he’s shown flashes, his numbers—19 touchdowns to five interceptions—reflect an up-and-down campaign.
Now, Iamaleava faces the biggest test of his young career: a trip into the hostile environment of Ohio Stadium to face a stout Buckeyes defense. Tennessee struggled offensively against two of the better defenses they faced this season, both in losses to Georgia and Oklahoma, managing fewer than 20 points in both games. In those matchups, Iamaleava’s performance was only moderate at best.
For the Vols to have a shot on Saturday, Iamaleava will need to find the end zone. That task could be made even more difficult due to Tennessee’s banged-up receiving corps heading into the CFP first-round playoff. Starting receivers Bru McCoy, Donte Thornton, and Squirrel White were all in non-contact red jerseys as they recover from injuries that sidelined them during the Vanderbilt game on Nov. 30, per USA Today.
Tennessee sacks Will Howard twice, holds Ohio State to just over 100 yards rushing
Though they never fully got to him, Michigan put a ton of pressure on Ohio State quarterback Will Howard in the Buckeyes' last game, and he appeared a bit banged up in the first half. The constant shuffling of the offensive line due to injuries has created challenges for head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
Howard has been sacked just 10 times this season, with the most coming against Penn State's tough defensive front, where he went down three times. The Vols will aim to add to their 29 sacks on the season and look to get to Howard at least twice on Saturday night.
Another key factor to watch is how Ohio State's rushing attack responds after being held to just 77 yards against Michigan. The Buckeyes have been held under 100 rushing yards only twice this season—the other instance coming in a narrow win over Nebraska. Tennessee will do their best to limit the Buckeyes’ ground game, but expect Ohio State to manage at least 100 rushing yards.
Tennessee narrowly loses to Ohio State
Even though ticket sales from vendor sites suggest that Vols fans are likely to paint part of Columbus orange on Saturday night, it may not be enough to overcome the Buckeyes.
This game should be close, with both teams battling the cold weather. If I’m a Vols fan, though, I’d worry about how Iamaleava will respond in another big-time game, especially on the road. At some point, Will Howard and the Ohio State rushing attack are likely going to do just enough to pull away, sending the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl for a rematch against the Ducks.
