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It is an AFC against NFC matchup as the Houston Texans face the Atlanta Falcons. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Texans-Falcons prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Texans enter the game at 2-2 on the season. They struggled in the first two games of the season, especially on offense. In the first game of the season, they managed just nine points against the Ravens. It was a 25-9 loss in game one. Then against the Colts they managed 20 points but would lose 31-20. The Texans figured out their offense. They took a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and would end up winning 37-17. Then last week it was a complete blowout of the Steelers. The Texans led 16-0 in the first half and would end up winning 30-6.
The Falcons also enter the game 2-2. They opened up the season strong with a win over the Panthers 24-10. Then, it was a close game with the Packers. They scored with 12 seconds left in the first half to make it 10-9. After falling 24-12 in the third quarter, the Falcons came back again. They would score 12 in the fourth quarter to win 25-24. The next two weeks did not go as well for the Falcons. First, it was a 20-6 loss to the Lions with just two field goals for the team in the game. Last week in London, it was another struggle. The Jaguars led 17-0 in the first half, and the Falcons would score to start the third quarter, but it would be a 23-7 loss to the Jaguars.
Here are the Texans-Falcons NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Texans-Falcons Odds
Houston Texas: +1.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 41.5 (-110)
Under: 41.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texans vs. Falcons Week 5
Time: 1:00 PM ET/ 10:00 AM PT
TV: Fox
Stream: NFL+, fuboTV (Click for a free trial), NFL Sunday Ticket if out-of-market
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread
CJ Stroud has continued to improve this season under center for the Texans. This season he is 94 for 151 passing for 1,212 yards and six touchdowns. According to PFF, he has three big-time throws this season. He also has not thrown an interception. He has four turnover-worthy passes this season though. In the first two games, he was under 66 percent passing, had three turnover-worthy passes, and was sacked 11 times. In the second two games, he has just one turnover worth pass and has not been sacked, while throwing four touchdowns.
The running game has not been as successful for the Texans this year. Dameon Pierce has 181 yards on the ground in four games with a touchdown. He has just 2.8 yards per carry, and the issue has been blocking. He has just a half of a yard of space before first contact this year, and 2.3 yards after contact. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary has just 95 yards on the ground this year, but also is dealing with the same blocking issues.
The receiving game has been great for the Texans this year. Nico Collins has brought in 22 of 32 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns. He is averaging 19.5 yards per reception this year, with 9.0 of those yards coming after the catch. Meanwhile, Tank Dell has brought in 16 of 24 targets for 267 yards and two scores, while Robert Woods has 191 yards on the year.
The Houston Texans are 13th in yards allowed per game this year. They are eighth against the run this year while sitting 19th against the rush. Overall, they are 11th in points allowed per game. The main defensive issue for the Texans has been missed tackles. Christian Harris and Henry To'oTo'o have both missed five tackles in the run game, while the Texans have missed 23 overall. They also need to get more pressure on the quarterback. The Texans do have 72 pressures this year, but they have just six sacks this season. Three of them come from Jonathan Greenard who also has eight pressures this year.
Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread
Desmond Ridder has not been playing well this year. He is just 74-119 passing for 744 yards. Ridder has just three touchdowns this season while also throwing three interceptions. He has also struggled with pressure and inaccurate throws. Ridder has been sacked 16 times this year while being pressured in over a third of his dropbacks. That has led to 16 sacks this year on Ridder. He has also fumbled three times this year.
Bijan Robinson is a star for the Falcons this year. He has run for 318 yards on 53 attempts this year. Robinson is getting solid blocking, with over 2.5 yards before first contact, and another 3.47 yards after contact this season. He has caused 11 missed tackles this season as well but has yet to find the endzone. Tyler Allgeier has scored twice this year. He has 151 yards this season on 45 attempts on the ground.
The top receiver this year for the Falcons has been Jonnu Smith. The back-up tight end has 179 yards receiving while bringing in 15 of 20 targets this season. The second leading receiver has been Bijan Robinson. He has 134 yards this year with a touchdown. The other two touchdowns this season has come from Drake London, who has brought in 11 of 22 targets this season.
Atlanta has been led by a solid defense this year. They are seventh in total yards allowed per game, while sitting fifth against the pass, and 17th against the run. Overall, their 19.3 points allowed per game sits them tenth in the NFL. The defense is led by Jesse Bates at safety. He has been solid in the run game, creating six stops for offensive failures, while also interceptions three passes this year. He has also forced two fumbles. The two fumbles and the three interceptions are the only ones forced by the Falcons this year.
Final Texans-Falcons Prediction & Pick
Houston started the season rough but has turned it on and shown they made a solid decision taking Stroud in the first round. Meanwhile, Atlanta has cooled off from their solid start and has lost two straight games. The issue has been Desmond Ridder. He has been very turnover-prone and continues to miss open receivers. While the Falcons' defense will keep them in this game, it will not be enough as the Texans win.
Final Texans-Falcons Prediction & Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110)
