As the winners of the 2021 NBA Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks have a massive target on their backs. With the rest of the league trying to chase down Giannis Antetokounmpo and his championship-winning teammates, they have had their fair share of shortcomings this season.
Center Brook Lopez has only played in seven games (five starts) after having missed most of the year with a back injury, and each member of the core three for the Bucks (Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton) has missed time as well. But with head coach Mike Budenholzer tightening up his rotation a bit during the regular season, it has helped keep this team competitive and its play on par with last season.
But the Eastern Conference is very strong this year, as four teams (76ers, Bucks, Celtics, and Heat) are all tied in the loss column at 28 apiece. There are currently seven teams with 40+ wins on the year, and only 5 of the conference’s 15 teams are below .500 on the season.
Will their own conference be the toughest piece for the Bucks to overcome, or will shortcomings by their own roster be the biggest issue at hand for Milwaukee?
Biggest Roadblock for the Bucks’ Championship Hopes
Managing the minutes for Portis with Lopez returning
There are eight games remaining in the NBA regular season for the Bucks, with all but one matchup (Pistons) against a team that is fighting for a playoff spot. While Milwaukee has certainly held their own this year and has not really experienced an extended championship lull, there is one piece to the puzzle that matters the most for their chances of a repeat.
In Lopez’s absence, Bobby Portis stepped into the starting lineup, a change from his bench-mob role he thrived in last season. Helping lead that second unit helped propel Portis into the hearts of Bucks’ faithful and into a new contract with the Bucks this offseason.
But as Lopez returns, Portis becomes the odd man out and is relegated back to coming off the bench, seemingly an unfair demotion for a player that earned the right to be a starter on a championship-hopeful squad. So managing the minute distribution between Lopez and Portis is going to be the biggest and most important piece that needs to be addressed if the team wants to get back to the Finals.
When comparing stats between when Portis starts and when he comes off the bench, there are stark and noticeable differences. As a note for all stats, Portis averages just under nine more minutes per game when starting (29.6, 58 games) versus when coming off of the bench (20.9, 7 games).
Those nine fewer minutes of game time take about 1.5 FGAs, 2 3PAs, and 0.5 FTAs away from Portis, and his shooting splits when starting (48.6/40.9/74.8) versus when coming off the bench (36.8/25.0/77.8) are important as well – ultimately, these shooting differences equal to 6.3 fewer PPG when coming off the bench.
Even when comparing splits of a 58-game amount versus a 7-game amount, it is quite obvious that maximizing Portis’ impact when coming off the bench will be integral to Milwaukee’s success in the postseason this year. While he is more than familiar with coming off the bench, having grown comfortable in the starting lineup is what helped keep Portis strong and helped the team overcome Lopez’s extended absence.
If Budenholzer can manage the working relationship with both Lopez and Portis on the floor and help maximize each player’s output, then this Bucks team is going to be extremely difficult to stop. But for an HC that has had questionable rotation decisions in the past, it may not be that easy.
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