Julius Randle has been named to two All-Star teams in nine complete seasons. This season is his tenth in the NBA, and he’s having potentially the best one of his career. But personal success does not guarantee a spot on the All-Star team.
The All-Star Game is equal parts merit and a popularity contest. It is not the All-NBA team, which is purer way of measuring achievement.
Still, there’s bragging rights that go along with being named to an All-Star team, and some players even have stipulations in their contracts that result in bonuses paid for being named to one, too. Julius Randle is among the players with such a stipulation. Specifically, Randle will take home an extra $1.8 million if he makes it.
Eastern Conference Landscape
The process of being named an All-Star is fairly complicated. Starters are decided by a mixture of fans, players, media members, and/or coaches, whereas reserves are voted on by head coaches with each coach being unable to vote for their own players.
There were seven forwards and one center from the Eastern Conference selected to the 2023 NBA All-Star game. The forwards included Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Bam Adebayo, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam, and Julius Randle.
The second set of results for 2024 All-Star voting, released on January 13, ranked the top 10 vote getters for Eastern Conference and Western Conference back court and front court players. Regarding the Eastern Conference front court, let’s ignore Joel Embiid and Kristaps Porzingis, as those two are centers with slightly different skill sets. Further, it’s fair to assume that Antetokounmpo and Tatum will be the starters considering the current fan vote, statistics, team records, and pretty much every other metric imaginable.
Subtracting the aforementioned four players, leaves us with six players to assess. Specifically, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, and Bam Adebayo are all currently ahead of Randle, and Paolo Banchero and Mikel Bridges are immediately behind him.
There are frankly no other Eastern Conference forwards not mentioned above who are outplaying Randle this season. But how does Randle’s season measure up to those of Butler, Brown, Adebayo, Banchero and Bridges? Let’s review.
The case for Knicks' Julius Randle
Randle hasn’t exactly put a career year so far, but it’s been close. He’s averaging 24.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 35.6 minutes per game. It’s worth mentioning that his scoring average is good for 20th in the league, and he’s putting up the 31st-highest usage rate.
To be fair, Randle’s three-point shooting has suffered, as he’s connected on only 29.2% of his attempts. But he’s taking 39% fewer per game than he did last season, which demonstrates an impressive self-awareness. Randle is also connecting on 77.7% of his free throw attempts — and he’s shooting a career-high 7 attempts per game.
Oh, and his Knicks are winning.
One final differentiator worth mentioning is how often Randle is double teamed. Specifically, he has received the sixth most double teams in the entire NBA so far this season, according to StatMuse. Yes, you read that right. Defenses fear Randle so much, that they send double teams at him more often than anyone other than Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, and Nikola Jokic. That means a lot.
Verdict: To be decided, but it’s looking good for Randle.
The case for Jimmy Butler
Let’s start with Butler, who openly does not chase regular season accolades. He said as much recently to the media, alluding to the fact that all he cares about “is those [championship] banners over there.”
But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve the accolades. Butler is averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 33.6 minutes per game in 2023-24. He’s connecting on 46% of his field goal attempts, 37% of three-point attempts, and 88% of free-throw attempts. To summarize, he’s having a good season.
But he’s missed 14 of the Heat’s 38 games — compared to Randle , who’s played all 38 of the Knicks’ Games — and he simply hasn’t matched Randle’s output. Further, Heat are technically a half-game behind the Knicks in the Eastern Conference standings, there’s no extra points for successes.
Verdict: Sorry, not more deserving.
The case for Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown is another forward who’s received more votes than Randle so far. Unlike Butler, Brown’s Boston Celtics are playing significantly better than New York. But Brown is playing alongside an MVP candidate (Tatum). Meaning there is less pressure. Further, there is Jrue Holiday and Porzingis for defenses to consider, too, who allow for Brown to operate with fewer double teams and more space.
And still, Brown’s 23.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game are a step back from Randle’s stat line.
Verdict: Easy decision here. Randle is more deserving.
The case for Bam Adebayo
Unlike Butler and Brown, Adebayo’s statistics are competitive with Randle’s. Adebayo is averaging a double-double, putting up 22 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Further, Adebayo was recently given the fifth-best odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year by Fox Sports.
Still, Adebayo’s offensive workload is different than Randle’s, who has a number of offensive sets run directly through him. Conversely, Adebayo’s defense in isolations remains stellar. But Adebayo, like Butler, has missed a good amount of times. He’s been out for 10 of the Heat’s 38 games, which could play a role in the final decision, if it’s left to the coaches.
Verdict: This is the hardest determination to make given the night-and-day aspect of comparing Randle and Adebayo — but we’ll give the edge to Bam.
The case for Paulo Banchero
For a second-year player, Banchero’s status are impressive: 23 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. But what’s even impressive more is the fact that Bacnehero is leading the Magic in scoring, rebounds, and assists — and Orlando (21-16) is having a good degree of success while he does it.
While Orlando has cooled off, going 5-5 in their last 10 games, the fact that a 21 year-old is leading a young team in so many important categories — and they’re winning — is definitely worth mentioning.
Verdict: Banchero over Randle.
The case for Mikal Bridges
Finally, there’s Bridges, someone Knicks’ fans are clamoring to add to New York’s roster. While he might fit nicely on the Knicks, it’s difficult to make an All-Star case for him over Randle. He’s tallying fewer points, assists, and rebounds per game (21.3, 5.3, 3.6), while shooting the second-worst percentage on three-pointers (35%) of his career.
Further, the defensive ace is actually posting a worse defensive rating (119.7) than Randle (115.2). And while it’s fair to expect the transition from role player to leader to take time, it’s difficult to rank Bridges ahead of Randle now considering the Nets’ struggles.
Verdict: Julius Randle is still a clear step ahead of Bridges.
Of course, much of the selection process is not based on merit. But as explained above, it’s fair to expect Antetokounmpo, Tatum, Banchero, and Adebayo to be named All-Stars ahead of Randle — even if there’s a debate to be made for Randle over Banchero and Adebayo — much of which is based on accomplishments and results. But the fact that seven Eastern Conference forwards made it last year is a good sign for Randle’s candidacy considering how he’s playing relative to the pack. Let’s see if the selections play out as expected.
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