The Oklahoma City Thunder are well ahead of schedule. To even be talking about their playoff prospects at this time of year is a welcome sight for fans who were mostly expecting yet another rebuilding season.
While many expected them to be amongst the cellar dwellers again this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans. The fifth-year guard has turned into a budding superstar, making his first All-Star game and averaging an eye-popping 31 points per game ranking him among the NBA's elite scorers.
The emergence of rookie Jalen Williams alongside the continued improvement of Josh Giddey has given SGA worthy co-stars on a team looking to crash the party early. The youngest squad in the NBA has gone 21-17 since the turn of the calendar year, also winning 8 of their last 12 games which has them hovering around the Western Conference play-in race.
OKC has shown an ability to punch above its weight class but the Thunder's limitations could be exploited in certain playoff matchups. Let's examine what would be the Thunder's nightmare playoff seeding scenario.
Thunder stay at 10th, face the Pelicans on the road
The Oklahoma City Thunder are used to utilizing their young legs and switchability against veteran squads to their advantage. The New Orleans Pelicans do the same thing with a little bit more veteran seasoning of their own plus additional size in the interior.
That's why it's no surprise that OKC has struggled against the Pels in the 2022-23 campaign. They won just one out of their four season series matchups this season with the lone win coming in early March when both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson were sidelined with injury.
In those three losses, OKC had a tough time getting it going on offense against New Orleans' length. They shot just 41.9 percent from the field and 32.0 percent from beyond the arc in those three contests.
Having sizable wing defenders like Herb Jones, Naji Marshall, and Dyson Daniels to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander helps the Pelicans' cause. When matched up against either of those three, SGA has shot just 22.2 percent from the field. The sample size may be small at just 18 total possessions, but the eye test clearly agrees that even the slithery Shai has to work much harder to get his points off against New Orleans.
Then there's the disparity in the frontcourt. The Thunder have a glaring hole at the center spot and lack a true rim protector as prized center prospect Chet Holmgren remains sidelined for the season. The Pelicans deploy a traditional center in Jonas Valanciunas, who poses a mismatch against the smaller center options OKC has at their disposal. He's one of the NBA's best offensive rebounds and the Thunder just so happen to be the worst team at preventing second chance points.
There's also the possibility that Zion Williamson can take the court before the season ends. The Pelicans are expected to re-evaluate the hulking forward towards the beginning of April for a possible return. Should they manage to sneak into the play-in tournament, they could be a sleeping giant with their big guns back in the fold.
LA Lakers await OKC in play-in
Even if the Thunder do manage to get past the Pelicans, there's a very real possibility that the re-tooled Lakers would be waiting to face them. LeBron James is set to return sooner rather than later and the depth across the roster has looked leaps and bounds better than what it did before their NBA trade deadline moves.
OKC officially lost the season series against LA in their final clash on March 24th. In that game, a motivated Anthony Davis pounded the undersized Thunder from all angles. If AD plays aggressive and LeBron finds his form before the season ends, the lakers would be a handful for an Oklahoma City side that may be a season away from truly competing.
AD! 😤 pic.twitter.com/tddZrbwQzV
— Spectrum SportsNet (@SpectrumSN) March 25, 2023
Thunder fans, however, would remember their appearance in the 2010 NBA playoffs. It was the first taste of postseason play for their young core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. They faced the defending-champion Lakers in the first round and gave them all they could handle in what became a memorable six-game series. That Thunder playoff matchup signaled the start of perennial playoff appearances from OKC in the decade to come. History could very well repeat itself for the Thunder even if they do get bounced from the playoffs early.
After all, the growth that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the roster has shown this season has been a win in of itself. Anything else beyond that is just gravy.
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